Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro is producing at a similar production this season as he has throughout his NBA career. He is averaging 21 points per game, which would be a career-high, to go along with 5.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists and nearly one steal in 33.6 minutes per game.
The production is certainly solid, but for whatever reason, it doesn’t feel like the Heat play up to their potential when he is on the court. Miami is 16-17 in the 33 games he has played in this season and 12-8 when he doesn’t play.
This is a trend that began in the 2023 NBA Postseason and has carried into the 2023-24 regular season. Herro broke his hand in Game 1 of the team’s first-round series against the Milwaukee Bucks. As the No. 8 seed, many people wrote them off right away without Herro in the lineup. But, they responded with one of the most impressive postseason runs in NBA history.
The Heat defeated the Bucks in five games, advancing to face the New York Knicks in the semifinals. They defeated New York in six games, setting up a matchup against the Boston Celtics. After opening up a 3-0 lead, the Heat defeated Boston on their home court to advance to the NBA Finals.
They received a gentleman’s sweep at the hands of the Denver Nuggets, who defeated them in five games. But, the team’s success without Herro got people talking about whether or not the team is better off without him.
On paper, it would be easy to say now. Moving on from a player averaging 21-5-4 is not something any NBA team would normally do. But the proof is in the pudding; Miami wins more without Herro than they do with him.
Pinpointing what the reason could be is hard. But, one thing that could be playing a part is Herro’s drop in efficiency near the rim. This season, he has experienced the biggest drop off in shooting percentage at the rim compared to last season in the league.
According to NBA University on X, Herro is approaching a 20 percent drop off in his shooting percentage at the rim. That is a staggering change and one that could be playing a part in the team’s lack of success with him on the court.
Herro’s overall shooting percentage of 43.7 percent is right in line with his career percentage of 43.9. His drop-off at the rim is being made up for in his improved 3-point percentage, as he is connecting on 40.4 percent, which would be a career-high.
His inability to score in the paint efficiently could certainly be playing a part in the team’s lack of success with him on the court. The Heat at times struggle to score the ball and shooting so poorly at the rim could be costing them some easy baskets.
His 3-point shooting, to this point, is making up for it on his overall stats. But, it isn’t helping the team where it matters most, which is in the win column. If this trend continues, where the Heat is winning more without Herro than with him, they could look to explore trades again this offseason centered around him.
A first-round pick in 2019, Herro has been involved in trade rumors seemingly every offseason he has been in the NBA. He has yet to take that next step the team was hoping for after he won Sixth Man of the Year for the 2021-22 season, so it could be time to part ways and see if another team can unlock that next level.
More must-reads: