LeBron James made history (again), becoming the first NBA player to score 40,000 career points. We never thought that Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s all-time scoring record would be broken, and we think the same about James’ record. He has played 21 seasons so far, never dealing with a major injury, and has averaged a career 27.1 points per game. It seems very unlikely that any current NBA star will be able to break LeBron’s scoring record which sits at 40,036 points.
However, if there are players who can do it, they are playing right now. There are only five NBA stars who have a chance to break LeBron’s all-time scoring record or at the very least, become a member of the esteemed 40k points mark. Assuming each of the below players plays at least 72 games per season (including this season) and plays until 40 years old, we calculated the minimum PPG average to enter the 40k points club.
1. Luka Doncic
Age: 25
2023-24 Statistics: 34.5 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 9.7 APG, 1.5 SPG, 0.6 BPG
Career Statistics: 28.5 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 8.2 APG, 1.2 SPG, 0.5 BPG
Total Career Points: 10,930
Required PPG Average To Enter 40k Club: 26.6 PPG
Luka Doncic, at just 25 years old, has already established himself as one of the most electrifying scorers and playmakers in the NBA. With impressive career statistics and a stellar 2023-24 season averaging 34.5 points per game, he's proven to be a consistent triple-double threat. To enter the exclusive 40,000 points club, Luka would need to maintain an average of at least 26.6 points per game until he's 40 years old, assuming he continues playing at least 72 games per season and plays at least 11 more games this season at his current scoring pace.
Considering his young age and already remarkable scoring ability, Luka has a legitimate chance of reaching this milestone. Similar to a prime Larry Bird, Doncic finds it easy to shoot over defenders and scores in his own way without playing above the rim. However, sustaining such a high scoring average over an extended period will require consistent performance, durability, and potentially adapting his game as he ages. If Doncic can maintain the incredible scoring rate he is showing this season and ramp it up a little more, he can join LeBron in the 40k club.
2. Victor Wembanyama
Age: 20
2023-24 Statistics: 20.9 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.3 SPG, 3.4 BPG
Career Statistics: 20.9 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.3 SPG, 3.4 BPG
Total Career Points: 1,150
Required PPG Average To Enter 40k Club: 26.8 PPG
Victor Wembanyama, at 20 years old, is a rising star in the basketball world, showcasing remarkable skills and potential. With impressive statistics, including 20.9 points, 10.2 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.3 steals, and an impressive 3.4 blocks per game in his rookie campaign, he has already demonstrated his versatility and impact on both ends of the court.
To enter the prestigious 40,000-point club, Victor would need to maintain an average of 26.8 points per game over the next 20 seasons. We have never seen a big man with the skill level and potential that Wembanyama has and he can use that to his advantage when it comes to scoring a ton of points. At 7'4", the Frenchman can shoot over any defender and is nailing 33.3% of his threes in his rookie campaign and that mark will improve with time.
However, achieving such a high scoring average over an extended period will require consistent improvement, adaptation to the NBA level, and potentially overcoming any obstacles or injuries along the way. If Victor continues to add muscle to his frame and improve his efficiency, he will be a major contender to be the second player in the 40k-point club.
3. Anthony Edwards
Age: 22
2023-24 Statistics: 26.1 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 5.1 APG, 1.3 SPG, 0.5 BPG
Career Statistics: 22.7 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 4.0 APG, 1.4 SPG, 0.6 BPG
Total Career Points: 6,412
Required PPG Average To Enter 40k Club: 25.7 PPG
At just 22 years old, Anthony Edwards has already showcased immense scoring potential in the NBA. He already has over 6,000 career points and will continue improving upon his scoring average, which stands at 26.3 PPG this season. To enter the illustrious 40,000 points club, Edwards would need to maintain an average of at least 25.7 points per game until he reaches 40 years old.
While Edwards has demonstrated his scoring ability and potential to be an elite offensive player, achieving such a high scoring average over an extended period would be a monumental task. He has time on his side because at 22 years old, he is one of the most impressive players in the NBA.
Edwards is only in his fourth season so if he reaches another level as arguably the best player in the league, he can realistically average over 25 PPG every season for two decades longer to join the 40k points club. It won't be easy for the young man to accomplish this, but if he takes care of his body, he has the best chance considering his age and how quickly he has developed as a scorer.
4. Jayson Tatum
Age: 26
2023-24 Statistics: 27.1 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 4.8 APG, 1.0 SPG, 0.6 BPG
Career Statistics: 23.0 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.1 SPG, 0.7 BPG
Total Career Points: 11,408
Required PPG Average To Enter 40k Club: 28.0 PPG
Jayson Tatum, at 26 years old, is already regarded as one of the premier scorers in the NBA. With impressive statistics, including 27.1 points per game in the 2023-24 season, he has proven to be a versatile offensive threat. Armed with an outside jumper and incredible size at 6'8", Tatum has all the tools to be a dominant scorer for the rest of his career.
However, to enter the exclusive 40,000-points club, Tatum would need to maintain an average of at least 28.0 points per game until he reaches 40 years old. While he possesses elite scoring ability and some of the best offensive moves in the NBA, it's highly unlikely that he will enter the 40k club.
Tatum's career-high season in 2022-23 saw him average 30.1 PPG, but playing alongside Jaylen Brown for the foreseeable future may limit his scoring opportunities. At the same time, Tatum's goal will be to win an NBA title with the Celtics, and scoring a ton of points might not be a priority of his going forward.
5. Devin Booker
Age: 27
2023-24 Statistics: 27.5 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 6.8 APG, 0.9 SPG, 0.4 BPG
Career Statistics: 24.3 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 4.9 APG, 0.9 SPG, 0.3 BPG
Total Career Points: 14,065
Required PPG Average To Enter 40k Club: 27.4 PPG
Devin Booker is widely recognized as one of the NBA's premier scorers, boasting an impressive career scoring average of 24.3 points per game. To enter the elite 40,000 points club, Booker would need to maintain an average of 27.4 points per game until he reaches 40 years old which could mean another 13 seasons.
While Booker has demonstrated his ability to put up big numbers, achieving such a high scoring average over an extended period would be a daunting task, especially given his role alongside other prolific scorers like Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal on the Phoenix Suns.
Despite having a career-high season of 27.8 PPG in 2022-23 and even scoring 70 points in a single game, Booker may not consistently average over 27 PPG in a season, especially with the presence of other offensive threats on his team. Additionally, his focus may be on contending for an NBA championship rather than solely pursuing individual scoring records which means dedicating his body to 13 more years to score at a high level could be a tall task.
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