Assessing the risks of drafting VJ Edgecombe in Charlotte

The consensus among NBA draft analysts is that VJ Edgecombe, the electric athlete who just wrapped up his freshman season at Baylor University, will be drafted by the Charlotte Hornets come June.

The pairing of Edgecombe and the Hornets makes sense. He plays a position of need, his style of play is unlike anyone Charlotte currently employs, and he'd fit seamlessly into the culture that Charles Lee and Jeff Peterson are cultivating in the Queen City. On most fronts, it's a no-brainer.

However, when discussing Edgecombe, many analysts gloss over the warts in his game that may prevent him from reaching 'star' status in the NBA. Let's discuss the other perspective and break down why Charlotte should pass on the Big 12 Freshman of the Year for another option.

Lack of creativity

At Baylor, Edgecombe was asked to handle the ball for long stretches of time without point guard Robert Wright on the floor. While VJ was able to keep the Bears' offense afloat as the offense's primary creator, he left something to be desired when he possessed the rock.

There's no denying Edgecombe's otherworldly athleticism. If given a straight line to the cup in transition or in the half court, the wunderkind will suck the gravity out of the building and throw down a highlight dunk that will lead the next day's SportsCenter.

Outside of that, though, VJ is limited with what he can do on offense.

He showed an improved three-point shot as his lone college season progressed, knocking down 39% of his treys in conference play, but there are still questions about his viability as a jump shooter. Of his 50 makes as a freshman, 86% of them were assisted (per Bart Torvik). Outside of the easy catch-and-shoot opportunities, Edgecombe is far from a lethal shooter from behind the arc.

Creating offense inside the three-point line is just as big of a struggle for Edgecombe. He converted on 76 attempts at the rim as a freshman with 39.5% of them coming off assists. Compare that to Dylan Harper (17.6% assisted), Tre Johnson (19.0% assisted), and Kon Knueppel (27.3% assisted), and you get a distressing picture of Edgecombe's inability to create looks for himself with the ball in his hands.

When thinking about Charlotte's current roster construction, Edgecombe's lack of creativity isn't a problem. LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller will soak up the on-ball looks while Edgecombe functions as a supercharged Josh Green: a corner three-point shooter who will cause problems in transition and against closeouts.

However, if Ball isn't long for the Queen City, Charlotte desperately needs another shot-creator, not a play finisher, and Edgecombe is a ways away from becoming that. If Charlotte selects VJ at number four overall, it may be a hint as to LaMelo's future with the franchise.

Over-hyped defense

On the surface, Edgecombe is a fantastic defender. He racked up gaudy steal and block numbers in the über-competitive Big 12 and was a walking Tik Tok clip with his ability to swat away layups and tip balls in the passing lanes, leading to flashy run out dunks for himself or his teammates.

Those plays dominate the discussions about Edgecombe as a prospect, but the more granular details are worrying. On a play-to-play basis, he has some struggles as a defender.

His athleticism often works against him as he gets moving too fast to adequately navigate ball screens. He knows his top 1st percentile burst and vertical can bail him out, so he falls asleep away as an off-ball defender. He has poor closeout technique which leaves him out of position and his teammates vulnerable.

These are all nit-picky details, but they add up, and are important distinctions when analysts refer to Edgecombe as a potential All-NBA defender. He has the requisite tools to become a primary point-of-attack defender, but he's a ways away from locking down opposing primary options on day one, something he will be asked to do as a Hornet.

Longevity concerns

Right now, Edgecombe's game is largely predicated on his top notch athletic abilities. However, if he slips from a top 1% athlete to a top 10% athlete due to injuries, wear-and-tear, and the grind of an 82-game NBA season, how does VJ impact winning basketball?

Players with Edgecombe's nuclear leaping ability have a shorter shelf life as NBA players than the smoother, more skill-based players like the aforementioned Harper, Johnson, and Knueppel. It's hard to say how much that factors into the decisions that NBA front offices make, but it's something to think about.

Final verdict

Even though Edgecombe has some concerns, he's still likely to be the pick by the Hornets, and it will rightfully be applauded by the masses, potentially even myself. However, it's worth bringing an opposing look to the consensus thoughts as an exercise in evaluation and looking at the entire picture of a prospect's game, not just the glass-half-full look that has been floated out in recent days.

Every prospect expected to be available in Charlotte's range (Edgecombe, Johnson, Knueppel, Ace Bailey), has major warts on their prospect profile. I'm far from nailing down who I want Charlotte to pick at number four overall, and Edgecombe is still in contention, but I'm less sure than some others who have zeroed in on him being the choice.

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