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Jan 30, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) dribbles against the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first quarter at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-Imagn Images David Richard-Imagn Images

Atlanta Hawks Receive Surprising Updated Win-Loss Prediction

Originally posted on Atlanta Hawks on SI
By Jackson Caudell | Last updated Oct 3, 2025 3:25 PM ET

The NBA season is nearly here, with training camps opening this week and preseason games getting underway. One of the most talked about teams this offseason has been the Atlanta Hawks.

Atlanta was a fun team at the start of last season, getting to the NBA Cup Semifinals and playing well against some of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. Things went downhill once Jalen Johnson suffered a season ending shoulder injury, but there was enough shown from the Hawks to make you wonder what would have happened if they had been able to stay healthy.

They have had a busy offseason of adding to the core of Trae Young, Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson, Zaccharie Risacher, and Onyeka Okongwu.

Things got started with the big three-team trade that landed the Hawks Kristaps Porzingis and they continued into the actual free agent period. Atlanta signed arguably the top free agent on the market when they inked former Timberwolves guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker to a four-year $62 million deal and then free agent sharpshooter Luke Kennard signed a one-year 11$ million deal.

What will their record be?

Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

After all of the hype this offseason, what will the Hawks record be? I think it is possible they could win upward of 50 games if everything were to go right for them, but things like health and depth could come into question.

In a recent prediction, Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes is a little lower on Atlanta than some:

Forty-six wins might not seem like much, especially in light of the hype generated by the Atlanta Hawks' Grade-A offseason. That total would still be Atlanta's highest in a decade, and a six-win improvement over last year's figure.

Several swing factors could influence the Hawks' overall record, but Jalen Johnson's health is perhaps the biggest. He got off to a brilliant start last year, averaging 18.9 points, 10.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists through 36 games. A shoulder injury put an early period on his season, but 2025-26 could conclude with an exclamation point if he continues the progress he showed in his age-23 campaign.

Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher and Onyeka Okongwu are all in their early-to-mid 20s and should either sustain last year's levels or improve on them. Okongwu, in particular, could elevate his profile if the increased three-point volume he flashed last season is for real.

Trae Young is the known commodity, a likely All-Star who should shine even brighter with more supporting talent around him than he's had in years. New additions Kristaps Porzingis, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Luke Kennard are all starting-caliber contributors, and the first two have played major roles on deep playoff runs in the past.

A tremendous eight-man rotation, several players entering their primes and a weakened East combine to give the Hawks a real shot at 50 wins. This could wind up being a conservative prediction."

If Kristaps Porzingis and Jalen Johnson can show they can stay healthy, I like this team to win more than 50 games. This is as good of a roster as Atlanta has ever had around Trae Young and they are going to be able to do things they have not been able to, especially with Porzingis on the court to stretch the floor. With growth from Dyson Daniels and Zaccharie Risacher, I think this team is versatile and can beat teams in a number of ways.