Atlanta Hawks vs Orlando Magic: Spread & Over/Under Predictions For Tonight's Game

The final week of the NBA season is here and the Atlanta Hawks are fighting for playoff positioning in the Eastern Conference. The Hawks have arguably their biggest game of the season tonight on the road in Orlando, a game with big ramifications when it comes to the play-in tournament. Atlanta enters tonight one game behind the Magic for the No. 7 seed in the East and it is the first of potentially three meetings over the next week. Atlanta will host the Magic on Sunday and possibly face them again in the play-in tournament. The two teams have split the season series so far, each winning one game each.

Our own Rohan Raman broke down the game earlier today:

"Coming into tonight's game, the Hawks are 5th in the NBA in PPG, 14th in FG%, 15th in 3PA, 18th in 3P%, 3rd in FTA, 26th in turnovers, and 14th in rebounding. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 15th in points per 100 possessions, 16th in effective field goal percentage, 22nd in turnover percentage, 12th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 9th in free throw rate.

Currently, the Hawks rank 27th in PPG allowed, 29th in field goal percentage allowed, 15th in three-point attempts allowed, and 28th in three-point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 19th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 29th in effective field goal percentage allowed.

The absence of Jalen Suggs has further comprised the spacing of an already struggling Orlando offense. They're 29th in points per game, 27th in FG%, 23rd in 3PA, 30th in 3P%, 2nd in FTA, 16th in turnovers, and 27th in rebounding. Per Cleaning the Glass, Orlando is 27th in points per 100 possessions, 29th in effective field goal percentage, 20th in turnover percentage, 13th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 2nd in free throw rate.

The Magic are heavily reliant on the strength of their excellent defense. They are 1st in PPG allowed, 16th in field goal percentage allowed, 1st in three-point attempts allowed, and 25th in three-point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, Orlando is 2nd in points allowed per 100 possessions and 12th in effective field goal percentage allowed.

Orlando have home court advantage, four days of extra rest and with a win in six of their last eight games. Their most impressive win was a commanding 118-106 win over the same Los Angeles Lakers team that blew the doors off of the Western Conference's top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder. Against the Hawks, they're 1-1 on the season. Both of their games against Atlanta were low-scoring affairs where it came down to which team performed better in the clutch. In the first game on February 10th, Atlanta outlasted the Magic with a 112-106 win. The second game on February 20th broke in Orlando's favor, 114-108, due to a horrid performance from the Hawks offense in the fourth quarter. Therefore, it's fair to expect tonight's game will be hotly contested and neither team will be able to definitively take the other out of the game. Orlando's offense isn't built for extended streaks of good shooting and the Hawks don't have the defensive personnel to put the Magic away."

Odds

According to Fanduel Sportsbook, the Magic are 4 point favorites against the Hawks tonight and the total is set at 225.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER. 

Prediction

This is going to have the feel of a playoff game tonight and both teams are hoping to win to avoid slipping into the 9-10 range in the play-in tournament. I think this is going to come down to how Atlanta can limit the rotation players for Orlando. Wagner and Banchero are going to do most of the work for the Magic, but in the win for the Hawks earlier this season, they limited the supporting cast. In the second game, they did not. This will be an interesting game and a close one, but I give the Magic the advantage for being at home and having a more dependable defense.

Final Score: Orlando 113, Atlanta 108 (Orlando -4 and Under)

Additional Links

Hawks vs Magic: Game Preview, Betting Odds, Injury Report, Projected Starting Lineups For Tonight's Game

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