Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Game 1 odds, best bet

These are the top two teams in the Eastern Conference yet it seems like this matchup is still a bit of a surprise. I think most thought Giannis Antetokounmpo and company would ultimately down the Boston Celtics and that the star power of the 76ers might win the day against Miami Heat.

Instead, we are getting a couple of the best defensive teams in the NBA in a series that feels destined to go seven games. Boston won two of three during the regular season with Miami taking the most recent game in March.

Miami has had a little more time to rest than Boston but point guard Kyle Lowry is still listed as questionable to start the series. Meanwhile, Boston got by Milwaukee despite missing big man Robert Williams for much of the series. He is not on the injured list as the series begins.

Marcus Smart is on the injured list though and the reigning Defensive Player of the Year is going to be missed against the likes of Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro, the Heat's best scorers.

This is going to be a physical series, so some players are going to have to play well at less than 100%. Whoever can do that the best will win it.

Game Info

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat
Tuesday, May 17, 2022
8:30 PM ET
FTX Arena, Miami, Florida
ESPN

Betting Odds

Spread: Celtics +1.5 (-110), Heat -1.5 (-110)
Total: 204
Moneyline: Celtics +125, Heat -105

Best Bet

Miami -1.5

Most of the markets are predicting this to be a long series. I agree with that assessment but I think the first game goes to the home side. This one might be the game with the biggest margin in the series. 

Miami is a little better rested to start, but I especially like Miami coach Erik Spoelstra to find the first advantage of the series. That might be the versatility of big man Bam Adebayo or finding a role to get the shooting of Duncan Robinson back on the floor, or some other wrinkle. His experience and excellence will be an early advantage and will help Miami deal the first blow.

Getting Williams back is big for Boston, but it cannot be underestimated how important Smart has been in these playoffs. He has been Boston's third-leading scorer after Jayson Tatum and Jaylon Brown and he is their most versatile defender too. Derrick White has struggled in the playoffs and if Smart is out they are going to need him to be more involved with the offense and defense. It is just hard to have confidence in him coming close to matching what Smart gives them at either end.

Grant Williams is probably going to draw the assignment of slowing down Butler, who has been great in these playoffs, scoring 28 points per game. Williams might have earned some respect with his play in the Milwaukee series, but Butler is a different animal because he is not nearly as aggressive as Giannis, though both are very physical. Miami does not hunt mismatches as much as Milwaukee did and Butler does not play with the ball to the same degree as Giannis. Miami's shooters are very capable and they are good at creating looks. 

Miami is very team-oriented and presents a significantly different kind of challenge than Milwaukee. They have a few highly-skilled players but they don't lean on them (or watch them) the way the Bucks do.  Boston has probably already achieved more than expected so Miami might be a little hungrier after a Finals loss in the bubble and winning the East this season. They have more to prove and will have some urgency in the opening game.

Look for a close game but a few whistles and made shots will give Miami the edge. The Heat win it by seven.