Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Game 7 odds, best bet

It is not often that a team wins on the road to force a Game 7 and then is an underdog at home in it.

Boston is favored to advance to the NBA Finals for the first time in more than a decade while Miami is looking to get back there after losing to the Lakers in the bubble. 

Heat All-Star Jimmy Butler shrugged off a couple of back-to-back bad games and scored 47 points in the win. You have to like Miami's chances if Butler is the best player on the court again

Tyler Herro is once again listed as questionable but is not expected to play. 

Game Info

Boston Celtics (3-3) vs. Miami Heat (3-3)
Sunday, May 29, 2022
8:30 PM ET
FTX Arena, Miami, Florida
ESPN

Betting Odds

Spread: Celtics -2.5 (-110), Heat +2.5 (-110)
Total: 196
Moneyline: Celtics -145, Heat +120

Best Bet

Over 196

We got a win on the over in the last game. You usually see an increase in the point total when that happens. That is not the case here.

The oddsmakers are saying this one is likely to be a grinder. That is an easy conclusion to get to, but to drop the total by 5 points after an over is definitely unusual.

I am fading that opinion and looking to back the over thinking that Miami is going to be able to build on what we saw on Friday night. Butler is not likely to score like he did, but there is every reason to think that the Heat's secondary players can be very effective, win or lose, especially at home. We are looking at you, Bam Adebayo.

In the past two series, every time he has scored less than 10 points he has bounced back with 21, 31 and 18 points. That kind of game will make it easy for the Heat to score in the range of what they did in Game 6. 

As for Boston, they have not lost back-to-back games in these playoffs, and I expect them to play well in this game by leaning on their top players. Tatum is averaging a very nice 25 points per game at home in these playoffs but that number jumps to 29 PPG on the road. Jaylen Brown has just a slight uptick in scoring on the road, too. Both players should rise to the occasion with their all-around games. 

I am looking for a back-and-forth game that comes down to who plays best in the 4th quarter. Both of these teams are committed to defense but we should be able to get the over with more than a minute to go and not have to sweat too much. 

Don't forget that four of the six games have gone over and this is the lowest total by far.

Score Prediction: Boston 108 - Miami 104