Breaking down the keys to the Rockets-Warriors first-round matchup

As the old saying goes: styles makes fights.

The 2 vs 7 seed opening round matchup in the NBA’s Western Conference is fascinating.

Both the upstart Houston Rockets and the veteran laden Golden state Warriors share a similar, broad philosophy: defense wins championships. 

To that end, both teams are elite, the Rockets ranking fourth in defensive rating per Basketball Reference this season, the Warriors seventh, less than a point worse per 100 possessions.

That is where their similarities end, however. Let's look at what each team needs to do defensively to gain the upper hand in this series.

First, let's look at Golden State's defensive priorities.

Restrict the influence of Alperen Sengun

Houston most often looks to get 22-year-old center Sengun involved, either at the nail or the low post. The Warriors tend to prefer sending a hard double team at Sengun the moment he catches the ball. While he is a solid passer, the bet is that these Rockets, still so early in their evolution, possess neither the shooting nor the playmaking to punish Golden State in a four-on-three setting.

With the notoriously flaky Dillon Brooks the only Rocket (of their top nine players by minutes per game) shooting above 35 percent from beyond the arc, that bet makes sense. From a playmaking perspective, Fred Vanvleet is a wonderful decision maker but is not big or athletic enough to punish a scrambling defense with regularity. Amen Thompson certainly has the athleticism, but his stark lack of a jumper means you can play him for the drive every time he possesses the ball. Cam Whitmore never passes. Neither Jalen Green nor Brooks know what they’re going to do next.

Control the defensive glass

Golden State is betting that it can force poor shots and then clean up on the glass. The rebounds, however, may be a problem. Golden State’s small ball stylings are susceptible to elite offensive rebounding, which just happens to be a Rockets strength, especially since coach Ime Udoka has dusted off veteran behemoth Steven Adams and paired him with Sengun. The difference between Houston’s league leading offensive rebound rate (31.7 percent) and Portland in second (29.2 percent) is the same as the gap between Portland an eighth place Charlotte.

Given Houston’s lack of spacing in the half court, Golden State’s ability to own the defensive glass could make or break this series. Look for Kevon Looney to receive a lot of run.

Now, let's switch our focus to what the Rockets must do defensively.

Make Stephen Curry work for his touches

We all know what Golden State will do with the ball by now. Houston, though, is uniquely positioned to cut the head off the Golden State snake.

In their most recent matchup, Udoka stuck Thompson onto Curry with an old-fashioned remit: don’t let him touch the basketball. Thompson stuck to his task admirably. Curry’s off-ball movement is legendary and Thompson, arguably the best athlete in the league, simply wouldn’t let Steph get a clean look, face-guarding and top-locking him all night. Curry eventually finished with three points on 1-of-10 shooting, that one make coming from 32 feet. Any team will let a player, even Curry, fire away from 30+ feet all night. 

Keep Jimmy Butler off the free-throw line

Earlier this season, no Curry meant no Warriors. Butler changes that. Look for Golden State to run a bevy of wide pindowns and split actions to get Butler attacking downhill. If he can do that successfully, Butler will draw a ton of fouls. While giving the Warriors easy points and a quick breather, that also stymies Houston’s best source of points: transition buckets. If the Rockets can’t stretch their young legs in the open floor, can they score enough to scrape together four wins?

While both teams lean on defense as a core philosophy, everything else they do is diametrically opposed. This is the best "styles makes fights" matchup of the first round.