Breakout Probabilities for Brooklyn Nets Players

Porter Jr. is the only newcomer in this evaluation, and he immediately enters the best situation of his career. Going from the third/fourth option to an undisputed second option at least already bodes well for his odds at improvement.

From a scoring standpoint, he averaged 18.2 points per game on 50.4% from the field last season with the Denver Nuggets. Porter Jr. could easily add five points to his scoring average if he gets 15 or more attempts per game, which he should.

“I know he’s going to bring a lot and his work ethic is very good," head coach Jordi Fernandez said. "He’s a pro. He works really hard. So that’s going to be good for the young guys to see a guy like him who won a championship."

The rebound and assist numbers may not show significant upward trends, but the defensive stats could improve dramatically. With his 7-foot wingspan, increasing from 0.5 blocks per game to 1 block per game is quite reasonable.

Breakout probability: 80%

Noah Clowney

After already having a small breakout in year two for Clowney, an even bigger improvement will take a lot of work. He improved from 5.8 points per game in his rookie season to 9.1 points per game last season.

Clowney started in 20 games last season, but with the addition of Porter Jr., he will need to either become a strong contributor off the bench or move to small forward. Staying healthy this season will also be crucial for his continued development.

He had poor efficiency last season, shooting 35.8% from the field on 8.1 shot attempts per game. If he can up his attempts to the double-digit range and make his shots at a higher rate, then he could become a reliable scoring option.

Clowney has a better opportunity to enhance his rebounding and defensive statistics. He averaged 3.9 rebounds per game last season, and he possesses the size to secure more if he puts in the effort.

Breakout probability: 45%

Dariq Whitehead

Whitehead faces significant uncertainty about his role this season, primarily due to the limited number of games he has played so far, with only 22 appearances in his first two seasons.

Brooklyn selected him with the No. 22 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft after one season at Duke. The only thing you could write home about so far in his NBA action is his three-point shooting. Whitehead shot 44.6% from long range last season on 3.7 attempts per game.

Making a scoring jump to 10 points per game feels like a big ask for him. Whitehead is currently projected to be in a reserve role to start the season behind Cam Thomas and Keon Johnson. The defensive upside is where he can earn playing time and earn the title of a "breakout year."

After averaging 0.3 steals and 0.1 blocks per game this past season, it is plausible for Whitehead to make significant leaps in both categories if he can play at least 15 minutes per game.

Breakout probability: 20%