Brian Windhorst explains why Luka Doncic could be incentivized to pass up possible $406 million contract with Lakers

Luka can show Lakers that he is bought in

If Doncic waits until next summer to sign a three-year, $161 million extension, he could make an eye-popping $406 million, starting in 2029.

This summer, he can sign a five-year extension worth $228 million, keeping him under contract through 2031.

By the time his $228 million deal is up, he will be 32 years old and could sign an even bigger deal than the $406 million blockbuster, although that is not guaranteed based on health, the salary cap, and other factors.

Still, one could argue that Doncic should take the extension this year instead of waiting simply to show the Lakers’ new ownership group that he is on board.

“There is something to be said for signaling to the new ownership group that I want to be your partner,” ESPN’ Brian Windhorst argued.

“And there are worse brands to commit to and worse ownership groups to commit to than the Lakers and Mark Walter.

“So what Luka could do, even though there may not be a financial benefit for him connecting right now, there is something to be said for saying to the new ownership, ‘Let’s get into business together and let’s begin the process of doing this together.’” 

If Luka were to extend himself through 2031 this summer, the Lakers would be able to know exactly how much they owe who, and during 2027’s loaded free agency, Los Angeles would be able to target players like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, and Trae Young, who will all be free agents by then.

Expect Doncic to stay in LA

With James nearing the end of his career and his massive salary coming off the books at the end of next season, the Lakers can fully give Doncic the keys to the franchise, throwing massive money at players who he would want them to target.

The Lakers are expected to hold onto Austin Reaves even as he approaches free agency of his own, but with James and Ayton both on limited deals, by the time 2027 (or even 2026) rolls around, the Lakers will have an open roster spot and enough money to sign a superstar in free agency, provided they play their cards right.

Of course, Doncic could simply wait and sign his extension next summer. After all, the possibility of eventually getting a $406 million deal is hard to pass up, although if he has faith in his abilities to remain elite well into his 30s, he could make more money in the long run and help build a better team if he takes the deal on August 2 of this summer.