When the season resumes July 30, it will have been 141 days since the league suspended play following Rudy Gobert’s positive COVID-19 test. To put that in perspective, there were only 131 days between the last game of the 2018-19 season (Game 6 of the Warriors-Raptors Finals) and the first game of the 2019-2020 season.
In other words, players have had an entire "offseason" to get ready for this season's playoffs. Lots can happen when a great player gets this much time between live games.
Every offseason brings about an opportunity for players to add new elements to their game and to turn weaknesses into strengths. Although this pandemic offseason has been beyond abnormal, you’d be remiss to assume that every player will be the same player he was pre-pandemic. If certain star players on fringe contenders make a sudden leap, then any projections based upon the first part of the 2019-20 season might immediately be irrelevant.
Imagine how you'd feel about the Mavericks, currently seeded seventh, if Luka Doncic came back and was as good as LeBron, Giannis and Kawhi. Or how would you feel about the Heat's chances if Bam Adebayo added a three-point shot to his ever-expanding skill set? What would you think of the chances of the Rockets and Nuggets if James Harden and Nikola Jokic were noticeably better now that they both appear to be in Ketosis? And would you be shocked to see the Raptors repeat as champions if I told you Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet both made another leap over the past few months?
For our purposes, let's assume the status quo from the first part of the 2019-20 season remains in effect. So apologies to the Mavericks, Heat, Nuggets, Rockets and Raptors -- any one of these teams could make a run to the Finals. But unlike the five elite contenders below, they’ll need luck and/or one of the aforementioned players to have dramatically improved to win the title.
THE ELITE CONTENDERS (from 5 to 1)
5. Philadelphia 76ers
Did Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons address their greatest weaknesses during the quarantine?
Is Embiid in the proverbial “best shape of his life?” Embiid, who has always struggled with his conditioning in the playoffs when minutes are more strenuous, must be on the court for more than the 30.4 mpg he played last postseason. The Sixers need him dominating the paint on both ends of the court and not bailing out his defenders by jacking lazy three-pointers like he often does when he gets tired. Give us Christmas Day Embiid every game!
For Simmons, the question is even more obvious: Is he taking and making three-pointers? At the very least, he needs to show a willingness to take three-pointers to keep the defense honest. If he can make 30 percent, it’ll make a huge difference for Philly in the half court on offense.
If the answer is yes to both questions, then the Sixers will almost assuredly win the East, if not the championship. If the answer is yes to Embiid’s question and no to Simmons’ question, then Philly could still win the East and maybe a title depending on the matchup. If the answer is no to Embiid’s question and yes to Simmons’ question, Philly’s probably not winning a series against Milwaukee. And if the answer is no to both, the Sixers will most likely fall in the first round (unless they play Indiana). In other words, Embiid is the key to the Sixers’ playoff success.
Now that we know it’s Jayson Tatum’s team, how do the rest of the pieces fall into place?
Tatum is proof that not all leaps occur during the offseason. With various teammates in and out of the Celtics' lineup as the NBA season approached its mid-season point, Boston had no choice but to heavily rely on Tatum … and he more than delivered. Over his past 23 games, Tatum averaged 27.9 ppg., 7.3 rpg. and 3.1 apg. with blisteringly efficient shooting splits (49-46-75). He not only grabbed the mantle as the Celtics’ go-to guy, but he vaulted himself into next season’s MVP discussion.
Whether Tatum made another leap during this quarantine offseason remains to be seen, but either way, the Celtics will need Kemba Walker to be effective off the ball and efficient in his scoring opportunities. They’ll need Jaylen Brown to continue to be a star in his supporting role as the Tatum’s sidekick who embraces the dirty work. They’ll need Gordon Hayward to facilitate like he did in Utah. And they’ll need Marcus Smart and Daniel Theis to stay healthy so they can bring elite defensive energy to the table every game. The roles all make sense on paper –- let’s see how it all plays out in the bubble in Orlando.
3. Los Angeles Clippers
Are they talented enough to overcome their obvious lack of chemistry?
The Clippers certainly aren’t hurting for talent. They probably have the best roster in the NBA, and they have the closest thing to Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen on the wing with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. They arguably have the best pick-and-roll tandem in the NBA in Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell. Pat Beverley is an absolute menace on defense. And they have one of the best coaches in the NBA in Doc Rivers.
Yet, something seemed to be missing most of the year: chemistry. Kawhi missed 13 games. Beverley missed 16. George missed 22. And while the team was dominant whenever its key guys played, there were certainly some locker room issues throughout the season — highlighted by Harrell publicly calling out the team in early January and Rivers subsequently lighting into him behind closed doors. Does the long break expose that lack of chemistry? Or is chemistry overrated because of the unique circumstances under which the league is finishing its season?
2. Milwaukee Bucks
What happens this year when Giannis faces a talented, well-coached defense?
There aren’t many ways to stop or even slow Giannis Antetokounmpo. After all, the guy just put up some of the best per-36 averages we’ve ever seen: 34.5 points, 16 rebounds and 6.7 assists and shooting 54.7 percent from the field. The last two teams to defeat him in the playoffs, however, were successful in slowing him enough to swing the tide of the series.
Two years ago, the Celtics deployed the “wall off the paint” strategy with their versatile players like Al Horford and Jaylen Brown. It forced Giannis to pass to his teammates for open threes. Outside of Khris Middleton, none of the Bucks players who attempted more than five threes in the series shot over 32 percent. Ugh!
Last season, Giannis was stifled by the best defender in the NBA (Kawhi), who switched onto Giannis after the first two games of the Eastern Conference Finals. From that point forward, Giannis was limited to 20.5 points, 12.5 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game on 43.5 percent shooting. Giannis won’t have to worry about Kawhi — at least until the Finals, if at all — but he will face other quality defenders. Can he avoid another slump? If he can’t, will his teammates be able to pick up the slack this time?
1. Los Angeles Lakers
How important was Avery Bradley to the Lakers’ success?
The immediate reaction to the news that Bradley would sit out the rest of the season was that this was a big loss for the Lake Show. Bradley is a tough on-ball defender and had earned the trust of LeBron and Anthony Davis, highlighted by his 24-point eruption in their “recent” win over the Clippers.
But if you dig a little deeper, you might conclude that this could be addition by subtraction because it means guys like Danny Green, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Alex Caruso get more minutes. Bradley’s offensive output is pretty blah this season: 8.6 ppg., 2.3 rpg., and 1.3 apg. with 44-36-83 shooting splits in 24.2 mpg. KCP (39 percent) and Green (38 percent) are better three-point marksmen. And Caruso (35.5 percent) isn’t far behind, plus he averages almost twice as many assists per-36 minutes (3.9) as Bradley (1.9).
But what about his defensive impact? Bradley’s defensive rating per 100 possessions is only a 109. That’s worse than Caruso (106) and Green (106). It’s only slightly ahead of KCP (110). And while KCP’s defensive rating may be worse, his offensive rating (117) is far greater than Bradley’s (104). Same goes for Green (111) and Caruso (108).
Interestingly enough, Bradley wasn’t a member of any of the team’s top-six most-productive five-man lineups either whereas KCP was a part of five, Green was a part of three and Caruso was a part of four.
In sum, the Lakers will miss Bradley’s pestering, tone-setting defense at times, but there’s a good chance they actually get better production out of their other guards in most games … unless they start having to rely on JR Smith and Dion Waiters.
More must-reads:
Get the latest news and rumors, customized to your favorite sports and teams. Emailed daily. Always free!
For years, the Sacramento Kings have struggled due to a lack of size and athleticism, especially at the forward positions. But new GM Scott Perry has a goal to address that team need this offseason to help move Keegan Murray to a different spot in certain lineups. The Kings came into the offseason with two main goals: to add a lead point guard and to add length and athleticism. They brought in Dennis Schröder to solve their point guard needs, but haven't fully addressed the need to add wing depth. They drafted Nique Clifford and Maxime Raynaud, who both bring good size, but neither fits the 3/4 prototype of a 6-foot-8 to 6-foot-10 wing that could help Keegan Murray on the frontcourt. But it appears that the need is still on Scott Perry's mind, as he stated when he joined Sactown Sports 1140 on the Carmichael Dave Show with Jason Ross. "It's always on my radar to get better. That position, the four position, if a team has a good four-man, they're holding on to him," Perry stated. "In an ideal world, I'd like to be able to get Keegan more opportunities playing the small forward to allow us to play bigger as a team. " With the roster as currently constructed, the Kings' only backup power forward options are Dario Saric, who may be more of a center at this point in his career, and second-year big Isaac Jones. Doug McDermott could fill in, but he's a little undersized for the power forward spot and the Kings shouldn't go into the season relying on him for more than a shooting spark off the bench. It's also possible that Raynaud gets some time at the power forward spot, as he has the potential to be able to play next to Domantas Sabonis thanks to his outside shooting. But again, he's not the switchable wing that is so valuable in today's NBA. The Kings are still tied to restricted free agent Jonathan Kuminga, with the two sides meeting for the first time in recent days, with the meeting going well between Perry and Kuminga. Bringing in the 22-year-old wing would certainly solve the problem that the Kings are facing and give them extra size on the wings. A duo of Kuminga and Murray would be the best forward duo the Kings have had in recent years, potentially passing Harrison Barnes and Murray. What will be interesting to see what happens if the Kings strike out on Kuminga and are unable to get a sign and trade done with the Warriors. Perry seems to be patient going into next season, taking his time to build the roster in a way that fits his long term vision. There are a few options out there, including Precious Achiuwa and Kai Jones, or they could look to bring Trey Lyles, who they can go over the cap to sign since they have his bird rights. For now, we appear to be stuck in a wait-and-see situation until the Kuminga deal is resolved, but it's at least good news that Perry still has the power forward spot on his mind as the offseason continues.
The Boston Red Sox appear to have no interest in trading outfielder Jarren Duran, at least not in the near future. Trade rumors have swirled around Duran for most of the season, especially after designated hitter Rafael Devers was traded to the Giants. However, Sean McAdam from MassLive reported that the Red Sox may wait until the offseason before moving on from the former All-Star. The decision to wait on Duran is not due to a lack of offers. McAdam also reported that the Padres made a significant offer for Duran involving pitcher Dylan Cease, catching prospect Ethan Salas and another unnamed prospect. That offer was quickly rejected. The Padres have long coveted Duran. McAdam had previously reported that the Padres have been "relentless" in their pursuit of the Red Sox outfielder. The reported trade offer including Salas, the Padres second-best prospect and the 21st-best prospect in baseball per MLB.com, illustrates how serious they are about acquiring Duran. Likewise, the Red Sox's refusal to entertain such an offer, even as a starting point for negotiations, speaks volumes about their interest in moving Duran. The Padres' offer would help solve several problems for the Red Sox in both the present and future. Moving Duran would help clear up the logjam in the outfield, while Cease and Salas would respectively improve the back of their rotation and provide a possible cornerstone behind the plate going forward. Duran is a valuable trade chip as he is under team control through 2028. He has also taken a step back in production from his stellar showing in 2024, posting a respectable .254/.321/.428 batting line in 459 plate appearances entering Friday, with nine homers and 25 doubles while stealing 16 bases. That production would be an upgrade for several teams looking to improve their outfield going forward. The question is whether or not the Red Sox will be realistic in their asking price for Duran. Considering how quickly the Padres' offer was reportedly rejected, that may not be the case.
On Thursday, wrestling icon Terry "Hulk Hogan" Bollea died at the age of 71. "WWE is saddened to learn WWE Hall of Famer Hulk Hogan has passed away," the company said in a statement. "One of pop culture’s most recognizable figures, Hogan helped WWE achieve global recognition in the 1980s... WWE extends its condolences to Hogan’s family, friends, and fans." Hogan was the first true superstar to emerge in the wrestling industry, capturing a casual audience worldwide and bringing new eyes to the sport. He was an unbelievable draw, both as a baby face and as a heel. From his time as an All-American hero to leading the New World Order and teaming with Randy Savage as part of the "Mega Powers," he has been a staple of the scene for decades. Who can forget his WrestleMania III moment, where he defied the laws of physics to body-slam a 520-pound Andre the Giant? Or, more recently, his match with Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson at WrestleMania 18? His last appearance on WWE RAW on Jan. 6 saw him booed throughout, highlighting the rocky legacy Hogan leaves behind. Hogan's universal popularity has plummeted in recent years, primarily due to a racism scandal that led to his removal from the Wrestling Hall of Fame, only to be reinstated in 2018. Nevertheless, the damage had been done. Hogan's outdated and unwelcome outlook on specific aspects of life derailed the final stanza of a legendary career. Still, there's no denying that without Hogan, the wrestling we know and love today wouldn't exist. There wouldn't be WWE on the world's largest streaming platform, or All Elite Wrestling, which is developing into one of the most successful challenger brands. Instead, there would be smaller, more localized promotions, all competing for a sliver of television time. Hogan popularized the sport by bridging the gap between the wrestling ring and Hollywood. During his time in the spotlight, Hogan appeared in movies such as "Rocky III," "No Holds Barred" and "Suburban Commando," all of which helped bring his larger-than-life persona to a new audience. It's no surprise, then, that The Rock, John Cena and Dave Bautista have all made similar jumps in recent years. Hogan leaves behind an everlasting imprint on the wrestling world. Unfortunately, it comes with multiple asterisks; however, that doesn't change what he achieved as the first global wrestling star.
On Friday, the Minnesota Vikings announced a concerning training-camp injury for Justin Jefferson, which will sideline the star wide receiver during the preseason. Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell told the media that Jefferson felt discomfort on Thursday. Minnesota discovered he has a mild left hamstring strain. The Vikings plan to be cautious with the four-time Pro Bowl receiver during the preseason. However, O'Connell believes there is no doubt that Jefferson will play the Chicago Bears in Week 1 at Soldier Field. "The best thing is, we avoided anything serious," O'Connell said via Alec Lewis of The Athletic. "I see no concerns in regards to the opener (against Chicago). I have no worry at all that we’ll be able to get Justin ready to go for the regular season.” Jefferson, 26, suffered a right hamstring injury in Week 5 of the 2023 campaign, causing him to miss seven games. The All-Pro wideout is coming off a season where he recorded 103 receptions for 1,533 yards and 10 touchdowns. The Vikings are doing the right thing by choosing to be cautious in the preseason with their best player. Minnesota needs its No. 1 receiver available for first-year starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy in the regular season. Jefferson has had big games against the Bears during his time in the league, including four games (out of eight appearances) with 100+ receiving yards. He has 50 receptions for 685 yards and three touchdowns against Chicago since he was taken by the Vikings in the first round of the 2020 draft.