‘Buckets’ NBA best bets for Thursday night’s playoff games

Under 201.5 vs. Cavaliers

7 p.m. ET, NBA TV

By Michael Fiddle

This line opened at 203 and went as far down to 199.5.

Jalen Suggs was carried off the court in Game 2 and we have seen a ton of under movement in this game. The total has returned to 201.5. I think most of these late over bets are from sharp bettors shorting their Under 203 bets. They are trying to find that window, but I still think this total is playable at Under 199.5.

I don't understand why Jamahl Mosley is starting Jonathan Isaac with a starting group that only played 32 minutes on the court together in the regular season. If you're a tough Magic team and got the 5-seed with Isaac coming off the bench, I don't understand bringing Carter off the bench. The Magic offense has been putrid up to this point, so I just see that trend continuing.

We know the Cavaliers have had poor shooting on the road and we can expect that from the role players, who always shoot better at home.

76ers -4.5 vs. Knicks

7:30 p.m. ET, TNT

By Michael Fiddle

We had -4.5 spreads in New York for the Knicks and now we have the 76ers at -4.5 at home, so we have an indication that these teams would be a pick'em on a neutral court.

If Philadelphia had gotten blown out, I don't think we would be looking at the 76ers the same way tonight. I think they will get a good home whistle and I think the home crowd will play a huge role.

I originally played the -3, but I still like the 76ers at -4.5.

76ers -4.5 vs. Knicks

7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ TNT

By Matt Moore

Joel Embiid looks better than the worst-case outcome because the impact is there.

He makes the entire team better around him and the 76ers need the rest of their team, aside from Tyrese Maxey and Embiid, to play better. The fact that the Knicks got their wins off of some wonky stuff concerns me. All of the starters were negative in Game 1 and, of course, we all saw what happened at the end of Game 2.

Those two games can be the coin-flip games and we can play chalk from here on out and the Knicks come out on top. The way the 76ers have played Jalen Brunson defensively has been very successful and he can have a phenomenal Game 3, but because they aren't playing a full-drop coverage against him, he is struggling as a smaller guard.

Lakers Moneyline (-110) vs. Nuggets

10 p.m. ET, TNT

By Matt Moore

I am going to sprinkle on the moneyline right now and wait because I think the Nuggets will get juiced near game-time.

There is a ton of sharp money on the Lakers and they have led in both games. They had a 20-point lead in Game 2 and collapsed. They have lost 10 straight against the Nuggets.

The Lakers are coming off a game where they shot fewer free throws than the opponent and complained a lot about it. I think they are going to shoot a lot of free throws in this game and I would take a look at Anthony Davis points props. The Lakers can't feel any sort of comfort against a team that has dominated them in the win column over the past two seasons. I hated the message the Lakers players sent out after last game, but like I said, I think they will get a friendly home whistle and finally pull one of these games out.