Bucks should pass on proposed non-star center trade

Per the article by Andy Bailey, it's a simple trade from the Bucks perspective: Milwaukee takes in talented starting center Wendell Carter Jr. from Orlando and sends sharpshooting guard A.J. Green to Golden State.

Carter Jr. makes significantly more than Green does in 2026-27, but as Bailey points out, the Bucks have a large trade exception from the Giannis Antetokounmpo deal they could use to make the trade math work.

While Milwaukee could execute the deal, it would take away some of the scant breathing room the Bucks have under the first apron, where they're hard-capped. Carter Jr. makes $18.1 million this season vs $10 million for Green, so the extra $8 million brings Milwaukee close to both the tax line and apron: the Bucks would be just $2 million under the tax post-trade.

That's not necessarily a problem in itself, as their current cap amounts reflect everything owed to all rostered players. Milwaukee could still cut two players on expiring contracts and stay under the tax and apron by simply not acquiring more salary than they send out in deals until the summer of 2027.

What does become problematic is taking the cap sheet near the brink just to add another good center. The Bucks are not hurting for solid center play at the moment. I'd argue it's actually more of a problem that Milwaukee has both Myles Turner and Kel'el Ware under contract, as it will be hard to maximize both players simultaneously. And that's not to mention Jericho Sims, who just had his best season and is also still under contract with the Bucks too.

In a vacuum, trading A.J. Green for Wendell Carter Jr. is fine value for Milwaukee. But in the real world the Bucks are living in, making the roster more expensive and older just to add a third center who deserves starter-level minutes just isn't worth it. Maybe such a deal could work if the Bucks unloaded Turner (which apparently has been quite a challenge). Frankly though, given the lack of expectations this season it makes more sense to just let Ware start and see what he can do in that scenario.

If you're outraged about passing on the deal but haven't been watching Orlando closely, it is worth noting that Carter Jr. has stagnated as a player over the past few seasons. Three years ago, when he was fresh off averaging 15 points, nearly 9 rebounds, and 2 assists per game while shooting 35% from 3, I would have leapt at adding the 23-year-old Carter Jr.

Not the answer

For various reasons, some out of his control as Orlando's roster and coaching staff has turned over, Carter Jr. has not been that player since. He's fresh off averaging 11.8 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 2.0 assists in 29 minutes per contest, starting all 78 games he played for the Magic. The production is solid, but the three-point shot has disappeared: Carter Jr. shot 31.9 percent last season and just 23.4 percent the season before that.

Turner and Ware have both shot the ball much better (each above 38% last season from 3) while posting similar per game numbers. Turner was at 11.9 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 1.5 assists in a down season where he didn't mesh well with Doc Rivers at all, and Ware averaged 11.1 points, 9 rebounds, and 0.7 assists despite playing just 22 minutes per game and coming off the bench more than half the time he played.

Adding a player who at one point was as intriguing as 2023-era Wendell Carter Jr. is always exciting, but this specific player isn't better enough than the Bucks current options at the center spot.

Flipping A.J. Green for another veteran could make a lot of sense for the Milwaukee Bucks, but there's very few scenarios out there where adding another firmly non-star center is the right move for Milwaukee.