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Here's everything you need to know about Bucks vs. Celtics on Wednesday, Mar. 20 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today's game.
I'd say this is an Eastern Conference Finals preview, but I'm expecting one of these teams to mess things up.
In any event, we'll still call it that because that's what it should be. This is the odds-on favorite matchup: the Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics.
We'll get to those injury reports later, but this is undoubtedly a high-profile encounter that will grab people's attention about a month away from the playoffs.
Where does the betting value lie? Let's take a look at the Bucks vs. Celtics odds and make a pick and prediction for this Eastern Conference showdown on Wednesday, March 20.
Bucks vs. Celtics Odds
Wednesday, March 20, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
| Bucks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
| +10.5 -110 |
223.5 -110o / -110u |
+410 |
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
| -10.5 -110 |
223.5 -110o / -110u |
-550 |
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.
Milwaukee Bucks
Want to guess who's tied for the sixth-worst against-the-spread record in the NBA this season at 30-37-1? Still the Bucks despite their improved play, which includes a 9-3 straight-up record since the All-Star break.
As a road underdog — a fairly rare sight for them, admittedly — they have the worst winning percentage in the NBA, covering just twice in eight games (25%).
The last time we saw Milwaukee, it was putting up 140 on Phoenix in a victory on Sunday, and with the Celtics most recently shutting down the Pistons, 119-94, on Monday, it'll have the rest advantage for Wednesday.
With that advantage, the Deer are just 6-10 against the spread for the sixth-worst mark in the league.
In terms of totals, the Bucks have hit the fourth-most road unders by percentage in the league, going just 13-20-1 to the over. As a road underdog, specifically, they haven't hit an over all season in eight games.
On the injury front, Giannis Antetokounmpo is out with a hamstring injury. He practiced Tuesday, though head coach Doc Rivers admitted it was a "relatively light session," indicating he wasn't a lock to play despite it looking that way following his absence on Sunday.
The Celtics were -8.5 favorites but have moved to -10.5 with Antetokoumnpo out.
Boston Celtics
The basketball metrics love the Celtics, and so do the betting ones. The hangup here could be their injury report, but we'll touch on that shortly.
The standout betting metrics for Boston are plentiful, but here are a few that matter.
Overall, it has the league's fifth-best ATS record at 36-29-3.
The Celtics have not been underdogs at home all season and are 20-14 against the spread on their home floor, the fifth-best cover rate in the league in their crib. With a rest disadvantage, they're 7-6-1 ATS, which is still 10th in the NBA.
As a home favorite, they're just 16-18 to the over, which is about middle of the pack but closer to the bottom 10 than the top 10. They're also 26-27 to the over after victories, of which they've had many, which also slots them in the middle of the road.
OK, injuries.
Jrue Holiday (shoulder), Sam Hauser (ankle) and Jaylen Brown (ankle sprain) are all questionable. It's worth noting that Kristaps Porzingis returned on Monday and isn't on the injury report. Also unlisted is Al Horford, who sat Monday, as well.
The big one? Jayson Tatum. He sat Monday and is unlisted on the report today, indicating Brown could be the one who sits as the Celtics manage loads before the playoffs.
Bucks vs. Celtics
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is an under for me.
The total is listed at 225.5, the metrics are leaning that way, we won't see Giannis, Brown and even Holiday could be out, and again, the Bucks haven't hit an over this season as a road underdog.
With all of that, plus with the blitz of unders we've seen since the break, I'm betting on a lower-scoring game. I expect Boston to win, but 10.5 is a tough spread to bet.
If Brown sits, I'll be looking for Payton Pritchard props to go over within reason.
Pick: Under 225.5
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