Celtics vs. Warriors: NBA Finals betting preview

When the year started it definitely did not look like a Boston vs. Golden State Finals was likely. But here we are.

The Celtics did not really come into their own until the calendar turned to 2022 and their defense started to take over. With Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart setting the tone on that side, and elite two-way players in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, Boston has been a story of steady improvement throughout the season.

For the Warriors, it has been all about getting back into the groove. In Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green they have a core with lots of championship experience, but one that had not even been in the playoffs the last couple of seasons. Thompson, especially, was a wild card given how much playing time he has missed over the last few seasons due to injury. Throughout the year it was all about building to now, being healthy and giving emerging players like Jordan Poole a chance to find ways to contribute.

With the Finals set to start on Thursday, there is plenty of time to dive deep into both teams and we will continue to cover this series game to game as we did the conference finals.

For now, let's take a look at the odds and pricing for the NBA Finals and see where we can make some money.

NBA Finals odds and thoughts

Golden State -160
Boston +130

Picking the outright winner of a seven-game series is usually the least interesting kind of bet you can make. Boston is a decent payout as the underdog, but you can get the same value by picking off a game the Celtics are not expected to win. 

Ditto for Golden State. As the favorite, you can get those odds on a game-by-game basis and get more bang for your buck by hitting a couple of spreads you really like. 

Finals MVP

Steph Curry +120
Jayson Tatum +175
Jaylen Brown +1000
Draymond Green +1400
Klay Thompson +1500
Jordan Poole +3000
Marcus Smart +3800
Andrew Wiggins +4100

I absolutely love this market!

For starters, I think it is worth noting that an NBA Finals MVP is about the only thing missing from Steph Curry's trophy case. Whether that factors into the odds or not, who knows, but he has always been a fan favorite.

In recent Finals wins for Golden State, the MVP has been claimed by Kevin Durant twice and Andre Iguodala. Iggy is on the team this season but not playing the role he did back in 2015.

Often the award is won by the leading scorer on the winning team so it makes sense that Curry and Jayson Tatum are at the top of the odds table. Those are the leading scorers for each team respectively.

Given that both of these teams play good defense though, I think there is some really good value with Marcus Smart and Andrew Wiggins. To me, the only way Boston wins is if Smart gets Curry off his game (even though that might not be enough). If he does that and remains a viable offensive option he could take home the award.

The same scenario applies to Wiggins. He is a much more polished offensive player than Smart who could average 18-20 PPG and make it hard for the likes of Tatum and Brown to get their numbers. He also has the athleticism to make a signature play, which never hurts.

They are not the favorites but at those payoffs, those are the guys I like the most. If you want to go Curry then just back the over on his points each game, that probably pays off just as much.  

Series Spread

Golden State -1.5 (+148)
Boston +1.5 (-184)

Below is the option to predict the total number of games of the series without having to predict an actual winner. That has some appeal but I like this series spread play a lot.

You can make compelling arguments for both teams. Even though neither was the top seed in their conference, neither is a sleeper either.

One thing you cannot debate, though, is that Golden State has the homecourt advantage and has the more experienced roster. Those factors are going to be very hard for the Celtics to overcome and there is only one scenario in which Golden State wins the title and this bet doesn't cash (a seven-game series that you could hedge out of if you want to). I can get behind that. 

Now if Boston wins that is a whole other situation but that is why they call it gambling. 

Total Games

4 +650
5 +250
6 +190
7 +185

A sweep in the Finals is not very common. However, it should be noted that the last 4 times it has happened, the winning team had won a recent championship. The Warriors would qualify there and they swept in 2018, the last time they won it all.

The payoff would be great on a sweep by GS, probably better than a rolling moneyline parlay. If you are backing Boston to do it, you could probably make more by playing it game by game.

The odds drop significantly after that and deservedly so. I like the Warriors to win it all and 5 or 6 games feels right. I am not rushing to make that bet though.