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Apr 5, 2025; San Antonio, TX, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Cooper Flagg (2) reacts after a play against the Houston Cougars during the second half in the semifinals of the men's Final Four of the 2025 NCAA Tournament at the Alamodome. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Charlotte Hornets' updated lottery odds, remaining schedule for the top four teams in the draft

Originally posted on Charlotte Hornets on SI
By Owen O'Connor | Last updated Apr 10, 2025 8:24 PM ET

With two games left for each of the top three teams, the top of the NBA draft lottery is nearly locked in. The Utah Jazz and Washington Wizards are tied for the worst record in the league, sitting 17-63 after Utah won on Wednesday night. As for the Charlotte Hornets, the team sits with the third worst record at 19-61.

With the NBA's flattened lottery odds being implemented in 2019, each of the top three teams have a 14% chance of landing the top selection. They also all have a 52.1% chance to land a selection within the top four, 4% higher (48.1%) than the 21-59 Pelicans, who sit with the fourth highest odds to land the #1 selection (12.5%).

With the Philadelphia 76ers at 24-56, the Hornets are locked in to a top four selection. With two games left for each of the top three teams, and three left for the Pelicans, the draft order has still yet to be decided. If the Hornets were to win out and the Pelicans were to lose out, the two would be tied at a 21-61 record.

Similarly, if the Wizards/Jazz won out and the Hornets lost out, those three teams would be tied at 19-63. In the draft lottery, the determination between two teams that are tied with the same selection comes down to a coin flip. So, season-series record does not matter between the two teams.

Owning the worst record headed into the draft means next to nothing in terms of landing the #1 selection, though. In 2019, the Knicks had the worst record and landed the third pick. In 2020, Golden State had the worst record and landed the second pick. In 2021 and 2022, it was Houston, who landed at number two and then number three In 2023 and 2024, Detroit held the best odds and landed fifth both times.

So, since the new format, the team that has held the top odds in the draft has not landed the top selection.

So, holding that top selection is not guaranteed. What about the Hornets slot at number three?

In 2019, Phoenix held the third worst record, fell to the sixth pick. In 2020, the Timberwolves held the third worst record, jumped up to number one. In 2021, Orlando fell two spots to number. In 2022, Detroit also fell two spots to number. In 2023, the Spurs jumped up to number. Finally, as Hornets fans know, last year they fell from number three to number six.

In the six lotteries that have happened since 2019, 33% of teams have jumped from number three to number one. At the same time, 33% have fallen outside of the top five. The lottery is extremely unpredictable, and this could be seen last season when the Atlanta Hawks held a 3% chance to land the number one selection and jumped NINE spots to land the pick.

Hornets Remaining Schedule

The Hornets will play the Boston Celtics in both of their last two games of the season. Wednesday night was a good example of the team the Hornets might see, and to say it was not great would be an understatement.

The Celtics had the lowest of point total in over four seasons. They scored 76 points, a low that the Hornets have not even hit this season. Their offense was a struggle, and watching the game gave me a worry that the Hornets could legitimately win both of these games.

Granted, chances are one of the two games the Celtics allow some of their starters to play as they ramp up towards the playoffs. The Hornets are losers of five straight and have won only one of their last 10, so it seems like the squad is going to lose out on the season.

Jazz Remaining Schedule

Utah plays two different teams, the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Oklahoma City Thunder.

With the Thunder having locked up the best record in the league, it seems all but likely they will rest their players in this game. The squad rested Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Isaiah Hartenstein, Lu Dort, and Cason Wallace in Wednesday night's victory over the Suns. Despite that, the Thunder still beat Phoenix by 13 points. The Thunder's depth is just as good as the Jazz roster at the moment, so this game is a complete toss up to be honest.

As for their second game, this game depends on whether or not Minnesota rests their players. Minnesota is trying to get out of the play-in tournament, and are currently a game back of earning a top six seed in the West. If there is a chance they can get out of the tournament, their players will play and go for a must win. If not, good chance they will rest this game.

Wizards Remaining Schedule

The Wizards face Chicago and then Miami. It's extremely hard to put a prediction on how the Wizards will perform, as they look different almost every night. Both Miami and Chicago have something to play for, as both teams can get out of 9/10 play-in game.

With four straight losses and both teams needing wins, it feels safe to be able to pencil in two more losses for the Wizards to end their season.

Pelicans Remaining Schedule

The Pelicans have lost four straight, sitting 3-7 in their last 10. They play Oklahoma City, Milwaukee, and Miami to end the season.

As discussed before with Miami, the squad still has something to play for. As does Milwaukee, who are trying not to fall to the 6th seed in the conference. With the Pelicans entire squad being basically out, it's hard to see them winning either of these first two games.

The last game though? It'll be the last day of the season, which honestly is as unpredictable as the first round of March Madness. The Thunder will surely rest their entire squad, which will make that game something worth noting. Granted, as long as the Hornets lose one of their two games, however the Pelicans perform is nothing of interest to them.

So, in the end, chances are the Hornets will finish with a 14% chance to land the #1 selection in the draft.