Chet Holmgren’s Outside Shooting Will Be Key for OKC Thunder in Conference Finals

Oklahoma City grinded out a seven game series against a gritty, championship-savvy Denver Nuggets team. It certainly wasn’t easy, and most of the time it wasn’t pretty either. This young Thunder team was tested to the max and had to find many different, unusual ways to win. 

Like a season ago, the shots dried up and stopped falling, which forced Oklahoma City’s defense to turn it up a notch and win in chaotic fashion. The transition offense was elite in the closing games of the series, and the Thunder’s youth and athleticism gave them a leg up. Against a similarly youthful and hungry Minnesota team, though, that same recipe might not work. In the Western Conference Finals, Oklahoma City’s supporting cast is going to have to knock down the same wide open 3-pointers that they missed against Denver.

One of those swing players who can completely change the series with his long range shot is Oklahoma City’s big man Chet Holmgren. He is always going to be a highly impactful player regardless of his outside shooting success, but a hot stretch from 3-points range would give the Thunder its biggest advantage possible.

Not only does it put points on the scoreboard, but it opens up the floor for the Thunder’s elite drivers and draws the defense out further and further. When Rudy Gobert is guarding Holmgren, it forces him out to the 3-point line, too.

Holmgren has had moments of stardom in the playoffs this year, but he hasn’t found his rhythm from the outside at all. For a second straight year, Holmgren’s 3-points percentages have dipped in the postseason, falling to 32.1% on 4.8 triples per game. Across the regular season, Holmgren shot 37.9% from long range. The numbers get even glimmer when analyzing the Denver series alone. Holmgren shot just 22.2% from 3-point range against the Nuggets.

His defense is much needed, and there's no doubt that Oklahoma City is a better team when he's on the floor. But this team's ceiling is so much higher when Holmgren is spacing the floor and drilling triples. The looks that he's getting are open, and they are shots he needs to continue shooting with confidence.

When the paint is inevitably packed for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, having reliable kick out options is crucial. Holmgren's 3-point shooting can be the swing stat in this series.