Clippers’ Play-In Loss Ensures Thunder Control Lottery Pick

The NBA’s rich got richer on Wednesday night, as the play-in tournament loss to Golden State that ended the Clippers‘ season guaranteed that the 2026 first-round pick L.A. owes the defending champion Thunder will end up in the lottery.

The pick’s spot in the lottery order will depend on whether or not the Warriors win their play-in game in Phoenix on Friday. If the Warriors lose that game and become a lottery team themselves, the Clippers’ pick would be 12th entering lottery night; a Golden State win would move it up to No. 11, which is the slot from which the Mavericks won the 2025 draft lottery.

The odds of that first-rounder turning into a top-four selection will be 7.2% if it’s 12th in the lottery or 9.4% if it’s 11th, with either a 1.5% or 2.0% chance of it becoming the No. 1 overall pick.

The pick is the last remaining asset that the Clippers are conveying to the Thunder as part of 2019’s blockbuster Paul George trade. In addition to sending superstar guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to Oklahoma City, that deal also famously included the 2022 first-rounder that became Jalen Williams.

As Tony East of Circle City Spin points out (via Twitter), the Clippers will probably be the only team besides the Thunder who won’t mind if that pick jumps into the top four, since that outcome would increase the odds of the Pacers’ pick falling to No. 5 or No. 6. Los Angeles will receive Indiana’s pick and regain a 2026 lottery selection if it doesn’t end up in the top four on lottery night.

Besides controlling the Clippers’ first-round pick, the Thunder will also receive the Sixers’ selection, which can still be either No. 16, 17, or 18, depending on Friday’s play-in outcomes and possible tiebreakers.