Could Jalen Johnson Be The Best Player On The Hawks Instead Of Trae Young Next Year?

To be clear, this is not a slight of Trae Young. Despite a lack of recognition, Young is one of the ten best offensive engines in basketball and just led the NBA in assists. He's an incredibly gifted playmaker and his gravity as both a scorer and passer allows for Atlanta to consistently put up good offensive numbers. It'd be ridiculous to say that this version of Johnson is a better player than Young.

However, Johnson's skillset might be just as rare. Finding a power forward who can shoot is difficult. Finding one that isn't a liability on defense is even harder. Finding one who can actually handle the ball and make plays for others is almost impossible.

Johnson Took A Big Leap Last Season

In the 36 games Johnson played last season, he averaged 18 points, 10 rebounds and five assists on 56 TS%. For some perspective, Johnson was one of only nine forwards last season who averaged 5+ assists a game. His AST% of 20.4% and AST:USG ratio of 0.93 ranked in the 89th percentile of all forwards last season. He did struggle with turnovers as his TOV% of 15.1% ranked in the ninth percentile. That being said, he's one of only seven wings who averaged 5+ assists per game while turning the ball over under 3 times a game. Furthermore, he was 4th among all forwards for rim assists, which are assists that led to made baskets at the rim. He excels at finding cutters to the basket and that's a very rare skill for forwards to have. It could also be argued that Johnson's teammates didn't always do a good job of converting on his passes.

He ranked in the 90th percentile with 12.4 potential assists, which tabulates passes that would have been assists if his teammates converted on the shot. Considering that Johnson should be surrounded by shooters like Kristaps Porzingis, Luke Kennard and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, it wouldn't be surprising if those potential assists became real assists. There's a real chance Johnson could average around six assists this year, which would put him in the tier directly below Giannis and LeBron when ranking the best passing forwards in the league.

One might argue that Johnson's passing numbers may be misleading and the result of a small sample size. After all, RJ Barrett's passing numbers would also fall in a similar range, and Barrett's considered a negative asset who puts up empty-calorie statistics. Yet, Johnson had an on-off of +3.5 this season and a net rating of 1.6. Barrett had a negative net rating of -1.9. The Hawks are a better team in Johnson's minutes, which speaks to his all-around impact.

Unsurprisingly, the Hawks forward is able to put a ton of pressure on the rim due to his athleticism. He attempted 6.8 shots at the rim per game last season, which was in the 98th percentile relative to forwards. However, one part of his game that can stand to improve is his mid-range game. He attempted 4.6 short midrange shots last season (92nd percentile), but only shot 37.2% on those shots (31st percentile among all forwards). If he can become a true three-level scorer, that'd put him in contention for being the best player on the Hawks next year.

His rebounding is also excellent. Johnson averaged a career-best 15.3 TREB% last season and pulled in 1.3 offensive rebounds per game as a non-center. That graded out in the 89th percentile among all forwards. However, he's a legitimate superstar when it comes to getting boards on defense and ending possessions for opposing offenses. Johnson posted a mind-boggling 21.4 DREB% last season, which was in the 99th percentile among forwards last season. The only forward who posted better numbers last season was Giannis. While it'll be hard for him to repeat those percentages over an entire season, it's a testament to how much impact Johnson brings on that end.

His defense is solid, but he's not yet an elite defender. This is the other area that I can see Johnson growing in this year. Playing next to a rim protector like Porzingis in conjunction with other talented defensive pieces like Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Zaccharie Risacher should be enormous for Johnson's emergence as an excellent help defender. He was overtaxed on that end at times and he lost focus as a result, but those moments should be few and far between if he has this much help on defense.

If Johnson is an elite defender and rebounder (10+ rebounds per game) while being a great passer (6+ assists per game) and good scorer (20+ points per game), he'd have an argument for being the best player on the 2025-26 Hawks due to all-around impact. Trae might still have him beat due to his offensive gravity, but respectfully, there isn't a world where he's more than a neutral presence on defense. The potential for Johnson to be additive on defense is critical for both his future and the Hawks' ceiling next season.

The numbers bear out that Johnson already took a leap from the 2023-24 season to make himself into a solid defender. His secondary rim protection was better - he improved in rim points saved per 100 possessions, averaging 1.1 points saved (85th percentile) up from 0.4 (76th percentile) and opponents shot 7% worse at the rim due to his presence (82nd percentile). He also upped his steal numbers to 2 per game (82nd percentile) from 1.7 (72nd percentile). However, the biggest growth in his defense was in his efficacy on contesting shots as a perimeter defender last year. Despite his length and athleticism, Johnson actually hasn't been all that effective on closeouts for most of his career. Opponents barely shot worse when Johnson closed out on them - he finished in the 63rd percentile for FG% differential while closing out. That drastically changed in 2024-25. Opposing players shot 3.8% worse from the field when Johnson closed out on them, good for the 91st percentile among all forwards.

Suffice to say, it's ridiculous that Jalen Johnson would barely be considered a top-100 player in the NBA by any metric. He needs to stay healthy and he hasn't reached his potential yet, but there's a slim chance the Hawks have already found a worthy successor to Trae Young's mantle if Young leaves Atlanta next offseason.

All stats courtesy of Databallr and Cleaning the Glass

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