Details on qualifying offers for remaining NBA RFAs

• Quentin Grimes (Sixers): $8,741,210
• Jonathan Kuminga (Warriors): $7,976,830
• Cam Thomas (Nets): $5,993,172
• Dru Smith (Heat): $2,378,870 *
• Taran Armstrong (Warriors): Two-way ^
• N’Faly Dante (Rockets): Two-way ^
• Kevin McCullar Jr. (Knicks): Two-way ^
• Oscar Tshiebwe (Jazz): Two-way ^

Note: Qualifying offers marked with an asterisk (*) are partially guaranteed for $102,300; QOs marked with a caret (^) are partially guaranteed for $85,300.

For former first-round picks, qualifying offer amounts are generally based on their draft position, but they can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player met the starter criteria. That’s why Grimes, 2021’s No. 25 overall pick, has a higher qualifying offer than No. 7 pick Kuminga. All four of those players have fully guaranteed qualifying offers and would reach unrestricted free agency in 2026 if they were to accept their QOs.

Smith, meanwhile, is coming off a two-way contract, but is no longer eligible to sign another two-way deal with the Heat because he has spent parts of three separate seasons on two-way contracts with the team. So his qualifying offer is worth his minimum salary, with a small partial guarantee.

While it’s very common for two-way players to accept their qualifying offers, it happens far less frequently with former first-round picks.

As Bobby Marks of ESPN observed earlier this offseason (via Twitter), just five former first-round picks have signed their qualifying offers as restricted free agents since 2017. Here are how those five players fared in unrestricted free agency a year after signing their QOs:

• Alex Len: Accepted $4.19MM qualifying offer in 2017; signed two-year, $8.51MM contract in 2018.
• Nerlens Noel: Accepted $4.19MM qualifying offer in 2017; signed two-year, minimum-salary contract in 2018.
• Rodney Hood: Accepted $3.47MM qualifying offer in 2018; signed two-year, $11.72MM contract in 2019.
• Denzel Valentine: Accepted $4.64MM qualifying offer in 2020; signed two-year, minimum-salary contract in 2021 (partial guarantee in year one, non-guaranteed in year two).
• Miles Bridges: Accepted $7.92MM qualifying offer in 2023 (after sitting out all of 2022/23); signed three-year, $75MM contract in 2024.

Bridges was a unique case, since he faced charges of domestic violence just as he was about to hit restricted free agency for the first time in 2022. If not for his off-court legal issues, he almost certainly wouldn’t have had to settle for his qualifying offer — his eventual three-year, $75MM deal was a more accurate reflection of his on-court value.

As for the other players on this list, Len, Noel, Hood, and Valentine weren’t exactly marquee free agents when they finished up their rookie contracts, so it’s not a huge surprise that they weren’t able to secure the sort of lucrative multiyear deals they hoped for, nor is it a shock that they didn’t end up getting big paydays in unrestricted free agency a year later.

Giddey, Kuminga, Grimes, and Thomas have shown enough in their first four seasons to warrant multiyear investments worth at least the full mid-level exception (or well above that, in at least one or two cases), and players of that caliber generally don’t accept qualifying offers. So I think we’re still headed toward these four guys eventually working out new deals.

But if one or more of them does accept a qualifying offer, it will be a fascinating storyline to track going forward. Recent history shows a handful of underwhelming follow-up deals for former first-rounders who signed their qualifying offers, so an RFA who accepts his QO this season would be looking to buck that trend.