Dissecting the WNBA MVP Race: Collier, Wilson, Thomas Vie for Top Spot

The Minnesota Lynx forward made her claim for league MVP early and often this season. She has the stats. A prolific three-level scorer, Collier leads the league in scoring at 23.5 points per game. She became the first player in league history to top 250 points on a 50/40/90 shooting split in the first 10 games of a season. She’s impactful on defense. Collier ranks third in steals (1.8 per game) and fourth in blocks (1.6 per game). Record? Check. The Lynx own the best record in the league by a wide margin at 30-7.

The narrative is also there. Collier and the Lynx have been on a tear all season long after their narrow WNBA Finals loss to the New York Liberty last season. ’Phee has been the best player on the best team for most of the season, and it should be enough for her to win.

But despite Minnesota’s dominance, Collier’s claim to the throne isn’t the lock that it once was. Injuries and recency bias are threatening Collier’s campaign. The 28-year-old returned to the lineup Sunday night after a right ankle sprain sidelined her for seven games. Collier scored 32 points in her return — a 97-84 win over Indiana. To put this conversation to bed, Collier has to keep up with the recent hot pace of Wilson and Thomas.

The Case for A’ja Wilson

Despite the Las Vegas Aces’ early struggles, Wilson proved her value to her team more than anyone. On July 10, the Aces were 9-11 and out of a playoff spot. How did the reigning MVP respond? By putting the team on her back on both ends of the floor. This is where she started her scoring tear, averaging 25.4 points per game, and as a result, the Aces have gone 15-3 since then. Now, the Aces are in third place and riding a 10-game winning streak. If you think the seven-time All-Star has been the best player in the league for the past two months, you won’t find many who would disagree.

At this point, the only thing that might get in the way of Wilson going back-to-back could be voter fatigue. If the Aces pass the Atlanta Dream for the No. 2 playoff seed, Wilson could steal the crown.

The Case for Alyssa Thomas

Granted, the Phoenix Mercury forward’s scoring doesn’t jump off the stat sheet, but she boasts a dazzling playmaking ability. She’s leading the league with 9.2 assists per game. The six-time All-Star also has a flair for the historic — recording six triple-doubles this season to tie her own league record. Out of the 12 triple-doubles league-wide this season, Thomas has half of them. Phoenix sits in fourth place largely as a result of Thomas’ impact.

Although Thomas is having a stellar season worthy of consideration, this award likely will come down to Wilson and Collier, barring a late Mercury push into the top three to finish the season.

Conclusion

What makes an MVP is subjective. Different voters value different things. If the season ended today, the race could go either way between Collier and Wilson. There is no wrong answer here. Collier is a well-rounded scorer with the efficiency to match. She also defends at an elite level.

Wilson continues to prove why many consider her the best women’s player in the world. Her resolve and leadership are only matched by her numbers. She’s only 0.7 points per game behind Collier in the race for the scoring title and is currently the frontrunner to capture her third Defensive Player of the Year title.

Each player will have a chance to influence and impress the voters in the final few games of the season. Enjoy the finish.