The Miami Heat, entering a new era without Jimmy Butler, suffered through a vicious first round sweep last season after becoming the first tenth seed to make the NBA Playoffs. It seems that, despite some surprising offseason moves, the team is still expected to finish next season in a similar place.
Per ESPN's NBA Summer Forecast, the Heat are projected to finish with a 39-43 record, good for ninth place in the Eastern Conference.
In ESPN's NBA Summer Forecast for the 2025-26 season, the Miami HEAT rank 9th in the Eastern Conference.
— Heat Diehards (@HeatDiehards) August 27, 2025
6. Milwaukee Bucks: 46-36
7. Boston Celtics: 43-39
8. Philadelphia 76ers: 40-42
9. Miami Heat: 39-43
10. Indiana Pacers: 39-43
“The Heat won the East finals two years ago,… pic.twitter.com/9GhIgmkOfv
"The Heat won the East finals two years ago, but after trading Jimmy Butler III, it's unclear if they can defy expectations once again," Jamal Collier said. "The teams in this group all enter the season with major question marks that put them below the elite teams in this conference."
Last season, despite about a month of Butler still playing and looking like himself before the situation became toxic, the Heat finished 37-45.
The acquisition of Norman Powell, who nearly made the All-Star team for the first time in his career last season, was the Heat's big offseason move. Although he isn't quite Kevin Durant, Powell averaged 21.8 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.2 steals, converting on 48.4 percent of his field goals and 41.8 percent of his threes for the 50-32 Los Angeles Clippers.
This offseason, the Heat also drafted Kasparas Jakučionis with the 20th pick in the draft, traded Duncan Robinson for Simone Fontecchio, re-signed Davion Mitchell and Dru Smith and traded Haywood Highsmith to get below the luxury tax threshold.
The Miami Heat entered this offseason with one goal in mind, to shake up the roster that saw them lose in historic fashion in the first round of the Playoffs last season, and they did so with a variety of smaller and medium-sized moves. After Luka Doncic and De'Aaron Fox signed extensions with their respective teams, the Heat's previous plan involving 2026 free agents has now been postponed a year, according to some.
"I would say the Heat, now, are waiting to see if they can get a player that's better than Bam Adebayo, and the reason they say the summer of [2027] is that's when Giannis [Antetokounmpo] is a free agent, that's when Nikola Jokic is a free agent, that's when Donovan Mitchell can be a free agent," ESPN's Tim Bontemps said on the Hoop Collective podcast. "That's when a lot of these guys can be available, and we've seen the Clippers and these other teams talk about 'We're going to wait till the summer of 2027 to have the ability to do something.' I think the Heat are probably going to sit in that space."
Tim Bontemps on the Miami HEAT’s future plans:
— Heat Diehards (@HeatDiehards) August 19, 2025
"I would say the HEAT now are waiting to see if they can get a player better than Bam Adebayo. The reason I say the summer of 2027? That's when Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, and Donovan Mitchell could all be free agents. We… pic.twitter.com/mex5ZAP8lk
The potential free agents in 2027 include not just the aforementioned superstars but also Stephen Curry and Kawhi Leonard, who will be unrestricted free agents. Anthony Davis and Karl Anthony Towns will have the player option to do the same, (along with Antetokounmpo, Jokic and Mitchell).
"And look, they have the expiring contracts, like if Giannis wakes up tomorrow in Greece and says, 'You know what? I'm done being with the [Milwaukee] Bucks and I really want to go to Miami.' Well, they've got a bunch of expiring contracts. They've got a guy from Milwaukee," Bontemps added. "They can come up with a package with some draft picks and say, we can try to give you something to get you Giannis."
The Heat could theoretically put together a package for Antetokounmpo that includes Milwaukee-born Tyler Herro, expiring contracts, multiple draft picks and intriguing young players if Antetokounmpo were to ask to be traded at some point.
"But I think this is about biding their time, rebuilding their asset base some, and acknowledging that despite the fact that they had a really good five-year run and made the Conference Finals three times and the Finals a couple times, they weren't really a championship-level team, and they had to do some sort of a reset," Bontemps said. "And while the Heat are not anytime soon, I think, going to go back to the full tank days, they've kind of middled it, getting Kel'el Ware in the draft, making the Norm Powell deal, having some salary cap flexibility, and now we'll see where they sit over the next 12 to 24 months."
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