Execs Weigh In On Jalen Duren’s Value

However, as Fred Katz of The Athletic writes, the fact Duren is coming off a disappointing playoff showing has complicated the negotiations between the two sides. The Pistons also hold the right of first refusal — the ability to match any offer sheet Duren might sign — and no team has the cap room necessary to make a competitive offer sheet, another factor that seems to hurt Duren’s leverage.

Not everyone thinks Detroit has the leg up in contract talks though. Katz polled 13 anonymous executives from rival teams to learn what they consider a “fair” contract offer for Duren, who is eligible for a five-year deal worth up to $287MM (a 30% max contract). A standard 25% max from the Pistons would be worth $239.2MM over five years, while the most Duren theoretically could make from a new team would be $177.3MM over four years.

As Katz notes, Duren’s leverage in contract talks is primarily that he could accept his $9.6MM qualifying offer — essentially a one-year contract with an implied no-trade clause — to become an unrestricted free agent next summer. That would be risky, but it’s still an option.

“While Detroit might look like they have most of the leverage, given that there are no cap-space teams out there, they’re royally f—– if he takes the qualifying (offer) and walks next year,” one respondent to the poll said. “So, I think leverage is relatively even.”

According to Katz, six of the executives said they’d offer Duren five-year contracts ranging from $180-230MM. Two said $200MM, while another said $204.5MM — what Duren would be projected to earn if he accepted his QO and then signed a four-year max contract with a rival team next summer.

The other seven front office members were less bullish on Duren’s earning potential. On the high end of the four-year offers, one executives cited $157.1MM — the exact midpoint of what Walker Kessler ($129.4MM) received from the Lakers and what Duren could receive in a four-year, 25% max deal from Detroit ($184.8MM). Three respondents viewed a four-year, $140MM contract ($35MM annually) as fair for Duren, and three others ranged between $120-135MM.

“It’s more than Kessler got,” said one of the participants who dubbed $140MM fair. “(Duren is) more available and proven. (It’s) in a similar range to Alperen Şengün, who I view as an All-Star caliber center but not someone who is a consistent year-in and year-out All-Star. And (it’s) slightly below (Rudy) Gobert, who is/was an All-NBA defender.”

These responses come with an important caveat — rival team executives, who will have their own contract negotiations to deal with going forward and don’t want the market to be set too high for their own guys, are more likely to take a conservative view when asked to project a player’s contract. The responses in a poll of 13 agents would almost certainly come in higher.