Five big questions for the 2025 NBA Finals

We’re here! It’s NBA Finals time!

The 68-win Oklahoma City Thunder are clear favorites against an Indiana Pacers side that won 18 fewer games and held home-court advantage in only the first round.

Yet, there are several factors that could turn this series on its head. If the Thunder win them, they’re likely the next NBA champions. If the Pacers can take control, they have a fighting chance.

Who wins the pace battle?

The Thunder topped the league in opposition transition frequency in the regular season as well as fast-break points allowed in the playoffs. The Pacers, by contrast, love to play north-south basketball, leaking out in transition, relying on the unselfishness of Tyrese Haliburton to get them easy baskets. In the half court, they rarely pound the ball, zipping passes around with abandon.

Indiana dominates the "pace" narrative, but OKC actually leads the league in pace throughout the playoffs, though some of that is fueled by its turnover generating defense.

Watching two of the best adjust-on-the-fly coaches in the NBA attempt to slow the other down could be the biggest factor in this series.

Who wins the turnover battle?

The Thunder are famously turnover-hungry, generating 30 more steals than any other team these playoffs. They’re disruptive, aggressive, athletic and relentless — a nightmare for opposition guards.

The Pacers are one of the best teams in the league at looking after the basketball, despite their speediness and pass-heavy tendencies. Can the switch-heavy Thunder mitigate the chaos in which Indiana’s offense thrives? Will they rely on their depth, extending pressure, forcing the Pacers into late-clock scenarios?

Will OKC have to shelve a big?

The Thunder have faced Zach Edey and Rudy Gobert in these playoffs, allowing them to keep one of Isaiah Hartenstein or Chet Holmgren near the basket. Indiana’s Turner/Toppin/Bryant triumvirate will stretch the floor, taking away backline help. It's no surprise that the only rangy big they've faced in Nikola Jokic, pushed the Thunder to seven games.

That creates an opportunity for Pascal Siakam to go to work. Can the former All-NBA forward burn Holmgren or Hartenstein off the bounce? If the thunder go small, can he bully Jalen Williams in the mid-post?

The shooting of Indy’s centers could prove pivotal to how this series looks both stylistically and results-wise.

Will Indy let SGA get his?

Giannis Antetokounmpo averaged 33 points per game in the first round against Indiana; Donovan Mitchell 34.2 in Round 2; Jalen Brunson 30.7 in the conference finals. Karl-Anthony Towns aside, the Pacers were able to limit the damage done by each star's supporting cast. Will they look to employ a similar tactic in the finals?

SGA is inevitable, posting 29.8 points per game this postseason. Their only other double-figure scorers these playoffs are Williams (20.4) and Holmgren (16.4). Will the Pacers look to shut off the supply to those two, daring SGA to do it all by himself?

With a cadre of inconsistent shooters surrounding him, the MVP will need to have a superlative series. It’s imperative that somebody around him steps up. If both Williams and Holmgren break out, then contributions from the lesser lights may prove inconsequential. But a breakout offensive game from the Dort/Wallace/Wiggins types wouldn’t go astray.

Which Bennedict Mathurin shows up?

On the flipside, Benny Buckets could be Indiana’s bellwether. Next to Haliburton and Siakam, the 22-year-old is Indiana’s most talented scorer, yet his defensive issues and propensity to slow the ball make him a liability when he’s not putting the ball in the basket.

The Pacers are 5-2 when Mathurin scores in double figures this postseason. Against this OKC defense, Indiana needs an X-factor to step up as another off-the-bounce creator, and Mathurin is the clearest candidate. His head-down drives could play into the hands of the Thunder defense, so expect him to be on a short leash.