Five bold predictions for NBA's Eastern Conference

The Eastern Conference today looks nothing like it did when last season tipped off. Giannis Antetokounmpo is in Miami. Jaylen Brown and LeBron James are in Philadelphia. Tyrese Haliburton is back on the court for Indiana after missing an entire season. And the Knicks are the team to beat.

With opening night approaching, here are five bold predictions for the East:

1. 11 teams will win at least 40 games; no team will win more than 55 games

No conference in NBA history has had 11 teams win 40 or more games in a single season. There have been instances where 10 teams have done so — including last season's Eastern Conference — but never 11. This season will be different. The Eastern Conference has a unique depth of talent and the league's anti-tanking rules will discourage losing, which should bring a level of parity the league has rarely seen. 

Last season, 10 teams — Pistons, Celtics, Knicks, Cavaliers, Raptors, Hawks, 76ers, Magic, Hornets and Heat — all won at least 43 games. This season, the Pacers, with Tyrese Haliburton back, will join those 10 in an all-out battle to make the playoffs. 

That kind of parity means no team will win more than 55 games, and we'll see some exciting all-out races for seeding at the end of the regular season.

2. The Knicks come out of the gates firing on all cylinders and land the No. 1 seed

Title defenses tend to go one of two ways — a championship hangover or a warning to the rest of the NBA. The 2025-26 Thunder were the epitome of the latter, starting last season 25-1. While the Knicks won't match that pace, expect them to pick up right where they left off in June.

New York brings back an entire starting five — Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart, OG Anunoby and Karl-Anthony Towns — that has elite chemistry and belief in one another. Moreover, every major contributor on the team is in his athletic prime. Few, if any, other teams can say that. And now they'll have the championship swagger as a cherry on top. 

Expect the Knicks to start hot and vault to the top of the East, and Finals MVP Brunson to be in the MVP mix this season. However, they, like last year's Thunder, will run out of steam in the playoffs because...

3. The Sixers will win the Eastern Conference

Sure, there will be some ugly early-season games, some uninspiring defensive performances and some clunky offense along the way — you can't throw LeBron, Brown, Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid and VJ Edgecombe together and expect instant chemistry — but come springtime, nobody is going to want to face this squad.

In addition to the talent and athletic advantages at all positions, this team has something you can't teach: desperation.

LeBron turns 42 this season. He knows this is the final chapter of his storied career and has been working with his new teammates all offseason to try to jumpstart their chemistry. Embiid, who has played only 96 games over the past three seasons, cut weight as a last-ditch attempt to stay on the court. Brown is looking to show up the Celtics and the analytics community. And Maxey is scheming to enter the upper echelon of NBA guards. 

The window is one or two years, max, and everyone in that locker room knows it.

Put LeBron's back against the wall and he tends to come through. He said he didn't leave his family in LA to lose in the second round — I believe him.

4. Tyler Herro puts up All-NBA numbers — then gets flipped

Herro's career highs came during his 2024-25 All-Star season: 23.9 PPG and 5.5 APG. This season, he'll be a top-10 scorer in the NBA — at least for as long as he's in Milwaukee. While Herro's defense leaves a lot to be desired, he's an extremely gifted offensive player and will be the Bucks' best option on that end of the court by a long shot. 

Taylor Jenkins will hand him the keys and let him cook. Herro is home, he says he's never had a bigger chip on his shoulder, and he's on an expiring $33 million deal. All parties are incentivized to run a classic pump-and-dump. 

My prediction for Herro: 28 PPG and 6 APG … until he's dealt at the February trade deadline to a desperate playoff team in need of some offensive juice. 

Detroit? Orlando? Houston? Is anyone willing to offer multiple first-rounders? Or a prospect with some upside? 

5. The Celtics will be a play-in team

A number of analysts and sportsbooks have Boston positioned as the second-best team in the East, behind only the Knicks. I have no earthly idea why.

Why is everyone assuming Jayson Tatum is going to return to his pre-Achilles ironman form? He's played 22 games since returning, shot 41.1% from the field and 32.9% from three, and then sat out Game 7 as Boston coughed up a 3-1 lead to the seventh-seeded Sixers. Even if he pulls a Kevin Durant and is just as good as he was pre-injury, Durant played 35, 55 and 47 games in his next three seasons. Boston isn't making the playoffs if Tatum misses that many games. 

And even if Tatum returns to form and plays 70-plus games, you're telling me Paul George, Baylor Scheierman and Hugo González are just going to replace Jaylen Brown's MVP-caliber play from last season? 

Get out of here! Brad Stevens traded a 29-year-old All-NBA wing to a division rival for a 36-year-old George and picks. That's a gap-year move. 

Stevens told us exactly what this season is. Why isn't anybody listening?