From Prospects to Pros: Tracking the Development of Raptors’ Recent Picks

The Toronto Raptors recently learned their position in the upcoming NBA Draft, receiving the ninth overall selection after the lottery process. While the team had a 7.5 percent chance of landing the coveted first overall pick heading into the night and hoped to climb into the top four or at least maintain their seventh position, falling two spots was not the desired outcome. This outcome arrived after a season where the team’s performance was influenced by the focus on securing a high draft pick.

The Role of Lottery Luck

The annual NBA Draft lottery employs a system involving numbered ping pong balls to determine the top selections. Combinations of four balls drawn from a machine dictate the pick order for the teams not in the playoffs.

The weight of a team’s combinations is tied to its regular-season record, with teams with worse records receiving more chances. Despite team executives’ strategic planning, the outcome of this process is ultimately heavily reliant on chance. Even with a relatively low 1.3 percent possibility, there was a slight chance the Raptors could have dropped further, down to the tenth spot.

Raptors’ History at the Ninth Pick

The ninth pick is a position the Raptors have encountered three times previously, and their historical success in this slot has been encouraging. In 1997, the team drafted Tracy McGrady, a high-upside high school player who later became a Hall of Famer, although he achieved peak success after leaving Toronto.

Twelve years later, in 2009, they selected DeMar DeRozan, who spent nearly a decade with the franchise, earned six All-Star selections, and was instrumental in the team’s return to relevance.

More recently, in 2016, Toronto used the ninth pick on Jakob Poeltl, a player who has developed into a reliable starting center and remains a part of the team’s plans. This trio represents a more substantial track record at the ninth pick than many other NBA teams can claim.

Historical Impact of Ninth Overall Selections

The ninth pick has historically produced many accomplished players across the league. While it may not generate the same immediate buzz as a top-five pick, this spot has yielded Hall of Famers, league champions, and cornerstones for franchises.

Notable examples include:

• Dirk Nowitzki, a 14-time All-Star, MVP, and NBA champion, was drafted in 1998.
• Shawn Marion, a four-time All-Star who won a title, was taken ninth in 1999.
• Amar’e Stoudemire, a Rookie of the Year and six-time All-Star, was selected from high school at ninth in 2002.
• Andre Iguodala, a Finals MVP and key contributor to four championships, was drafted ninth in 2004.
• Joakim Noah, who earned two All-Star nods and a Defensive Player of the Year award, was picked ninth in 2007. More recently, Kemba Walker became a four-time All-Star and his franchise’s all-time leading scorer after being drafted ninth in 2011.

The Spectrum of Potential Outcomes

An analysis of the 21 players selected with the ninth pick between 2002 and 2022 reveals a wide range of outcomes. Roughly 29 percent of these players, or six out of the 21 studied, became All-Stars.

This group includes prominent names like Noah, Stoudemire, Walker, Iguodala, and DeRozan. Another segment, approximately seven or eight players, established themselves as long-term starters or dependable rotation players. Jakob Poeltl falls into this category, as do players like Rui Hachimura and Deni Avdija.

These performance arcs, frequently tracked in NBA player news on FanDuel, showcase how the ninth pick can yield everything from franchise players to role-fillers.

The Most Common Result

While the potential for drafting a star exists at number nine, the most common outcome is often landing a useful player who effectively fills a distinct role on a team. Players like Jakob Poeltl exemplify this, providing consistent value through defense, rebounding, and adherence to their team’s strategy. They may not possess star power, but these players contribute to building a solid foundation.

Players Who Didn’t Pan Out

Despite the potential for success, a significant portion of players drafted at number nine, between 30 and 35 percent, ultimately did not meet expectations. These players, such as Patrick O’Bryant, Mike Sweetney, Ike Diogu, Kevin Knox II, and Frank Kaminsky, either struggled to find a permanent place in the league or failed to make a significant impact.

Strategy and the 2025 Draft Prospect

With the ninth pick secured, the Raptors can now focus on identifying the player who best fits their current roster construction and strategic direction. The team’s strategy has recently involved emphasizing big, athletic wings capable of contributing defensively.

However, shooting is a significant area of need, as the Raptors finished near the bottom of the league last season in three-point efficiency (23rd) and volume (third-worst). Pro Football & Sports Network’s latest mock draft projects the Raptors selecting 6-foot-7 guard Kon Knueppel from Duke at the ninth spot.

Addressing Team Needs

Knueppel is noted for already fitting the preferred long wing archetype and possesses the elite shooting ability the team desperately needs. During his freshman year, he demonstrated exceptional efficiency, shooting 40.6 percent from three-point range and 91.4 percent from the free-throw line. He also averaged 14.4 points per game with elite efficiency. His shooting prowess and size offer the potential to develop into a three-level scorer, directly addressing the Raptors’ struggles as a bottom-ten scoring team last year.

Leveraging the Pick

A quality player on a rookie contract offers excellent value, particularly for a team managing a growing payroll. The ninth pick allows the Raptors to add such a cost-effective asset to their roster. Beyond simply drafting a player, the pick can also be utilized as an asset in off-season trades. Such a move could accelerate the team’s timeline for returning to competitive relevance sooner than relying solely on a young player’s developmental arc.

After missing the playoffs for three consecutive seasons, the Raptors need a catalyst, and the player selected ninth could provide that spark.