Giannis Antetokounmpo Is Available, And The Pistons Shouldn’t Pick Up the Phone

To first analyze a potential trade, the first aspect that needs to be laid out is the actual makeup of the trade. Since everything is still in the rumor stage, this potential trade offer is based on the current temperature of the market and logic. Creating a hypothetical trade for Giannis is still no exact science. The Bucks are not responding to any offer that doesn’t start with Jaden Ivey, one of Ausar Thompson or Ron Holland, and several picks. Due to salary matching, locker room leader Tobias Harris would need to be included as well. 

From Milwaukee’s standpoint, this is a huge haul and likely supersedes any offer another team could put together. This is two former top-five picks still under the ages of 23, additional future first-round picks, and an expiring contract; that is a surefire way to jumpstart a rebuild. From the Pistons’ standpoint, sure, they get a generational talent who is still performing at a superstar level.

After that aspect, the team composition and lineup are appreciably worse. 

The Pistons lose their depth. They lose a player who is still being viewed as the potential Robin to Cade Cunningham’s Batman. They lose Tobias Harris, who has been a real proponent of the culture change in Detroit and is a favorite among both fans and teammates. All the while, there is that added nightmare fuel where these former pillars of the Pistons’ rebuild are now in the same division and will play their original team four times a year for the foreseeable future. It is also worth mentioning that Giannis is 32 years old, which may not fit into GM Trajan Langdon’s timeline. Below is the current lineup, with the potential trade lineup, as it is a good transition to go from asset allocation to how the team now adapts and plays.                            

Current Lineup: PG – Cunningham/Jenkins SG – Robinson/Ivey SF – Thompson/Green PF – Harris/Holland C – Duren/Stewart

Potential Lineup: PG – Cunningham/Jenkins SG – Robinson/Sasser SF – Thompson or Holland/LeVert PF – Giannis/Green C – Duren/Stewart

Pistons Get Worse With The Greek Freak

Again, on paper, one may look at the potential lineup vs the current lineup and think Giannis is an improvement for the Pistons. This is where the stat nerd comes out and uses numbers to show big names do not equate to better play. To truly show the on-court difference before and after the potential trade between Ausar Thompson and Ron Holland, only Holland’s stats are being used. This is because Thompson averages 2.8 points, 1.6 rebounds, and 1.4 assists more than Holland.

The Greek Freak, as expected, is putting up excellent numbers. He has a line of 28/10/5.6 on 29.2 minutes per game. Holland, Harris, and Ivey combined have a line of 30/16.9/5.6 (with a combined average of 22 minutes per game). For the fans of “Player Efficiency Rating” out there, Giannis is at 33.8; Ivey/Holland/Harris combine for 39.9. Three is more than one, but the three are still doing more with less.

With this move, JB Bickerstaff would have to create new lineups in lieu of the team losing depth. Players like Marcus Sasser, Javonte Green, and Caris LeVert will see an increase in minutes and responsibilities. Players like Chaz Lanier, Bobi Klintman, and Tolu Smith will get minutes in an attempt to shore up the back end of the rotation. While this is not guaranteed to be a negative, it likely will not be a positive change.

LeVert has been inefficient and banged up all year. Green has been solid – the stereotypical bulldog archetype – but typically, those players thrive in their specified role and not by getting significant minutes. Lanier, Klintman, and Smith have shown promise, but these are players who are essentially G-League players. These three are raw prospects with little to no evidence that they can hold their own down the stretch.

Culture, Chemistry, Continuity – Does Giannis Make Sense?

It is no mystery that one of the major reasons for the Pistons’ success this season is the way this group plays together. Any given night, a fan can tune into a Pistons game and see how well they operate as a complete unit, with a big reason being that Cunningham has arrived as a superstar and leader. It is easy to give the cliche of team chemistry for a reason not to make a trade, but it is especially worth mentioning when that proposed player is not a second fiddle by any means.

Giannis is a superstar and captain in his own right, deservingly so. There is not a lot of precedent in the modern NBA of players like Giannis accepting that he is not “the guy” on his new team. Giannis might not be a culture fit in the city of Detroit or under coach Bickerstaff. The entire team has bought in and plays selfless and unified basketball consistently. This isn’t specific to Giannis; for any potential acquisition, the front office will be asking itself if the player fits that mold.

Chemistry isn’t just about becoming friends with your teammates; it’s about complementing each other’s game. Giannis is a dominant force, but one that his teammates would have to adapt around. The Pistons’ biggest hole right now is perimeter shooting, and Giannis is a career sub 30% three point shooter (albeit this season he is having his best from beyond the line at 39.5%). Giannis would not be asked to shoot from deep. While the inside game of this proposed team would dominate, this will more than likely not work in the modern NBA.

Over the last ten NBA seasons, 8 of the 10 last champions finished no lower than 10th in three-point percentage. The exceptions were last year’s Oklahoma City Thunder and the 2019-2020 Los Angeles Lakers. The Pistons are currently 20th in the league, which would be the second-lowest percentage, with only the Lakers at 21st having a worse percentage. In fact, when Giannis won a title with Milwaukee a few years ago, the team was still top 10 in three-point percentage.

The last piece of analytical data that brings into question what kind of fit Giannis would have on this team is usage percentage. NBA usage percentage is an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player when they are on the floor. This is defined by the possession ending in that player’s field goal attempt, free throw, or turnover. Giannis has a usage rate of 35.9%. The NBA average is around 20%. Giannis’ usage makes sense; he is a superstar after all.  Cunningham is also a superstar, whose usage rate is 30.5%.

These numbers would probably change if Cunningham and Giannis were on the same team, but this still paints a picture of the offense. Combined, that is a 66.4% usage rate, or in other words, for every 10 possessions, over between 6-7 times the possession is ending with Giannis or Cunningham scoring, missing, or turning the ball over. That 66.4% is higher than the combined usage rate of Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O’Neal during their 2000 NBA Championship season. It’s doubtful that GM Trajan Langdon thinks Cade and Giannis can replicate Kobe and Shaq.

History Doesn’t Repeat Itself, But It Does Rhyme

There is one relevant situation that this organization can learn from when considering a trade for Giannis. Back in January 2018, Stan Van Gundy made a brash move to acquire Blake Griffin to try and make a run with a team that, albeit, was overperforming. This was the trade that moved Tobias Harris in his first tenure in Detroit, while also trading away Avery Bradley, Boban Marjanovic, and a first and second round draft pick. The purpose of the move was to create a team surrounding Griffin and center Andre Drummond, a move shortsighted enough to make any fan’s blood boil. 

It is more than clear to say Blake Griffin is not Giannis Antetokounmpo. This trade bears worth mentioning due to the intention behind the trade and the fallout thereinafter. This is was a desperation move to speed up the progress of a young team. The team was in a significantly different position than the current version, but at the time of the trade this was generally viewed as a win-win for both sides.

Pistons’ fans did finally get to see a playoff run, even if it was a first round exit and sweep, but the cost was too great. The team never recovered, and eventually the oddly constructed roster led to another rebuild that saw a historic losing streak. The lesson to take away from Van Gundy’s desperation move, is in an NBA that has had the most amount of talent its ever seen, rushing the timeline to compete is frivolous as the top of the pecking order is not merely toppled through a singular trade.

End Of Rant: This Season’s Solution Is Simple, And It Doesn’t Include Giannis

The Pistons do not need Giannis; however, this is not to say they would not benefit from a trade, nonetheless. For the fans out there wondering how the Pistons could increase their chances in a playoff series, there are simpler solutions. Solutions that will not mortgage the future of one of the youngest and brightest teams in the NBA, and solutions that can bolster that very same roster. One of the major factors to not trade for Giannis is that he does not improve the team’s perimeter shooting. Perimeter shooting is the main need this current Pistons team is lacking, and again, perimeter shooting is a necessity in the league today.

The Pistons should be picking up the phone and inquiring about the availability of sharpshooters on teams who are not close to competing yet. A prime candidate is actually a former Piston, Utah Jazz guard Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk. He is shooting only 38% from deep this season, but this is mostly in part due to a cold January that saw him shoot just 29.7% for the month. His best season from deep is arguably from his first time in Detroit, when he averaged 2.1 threes a game on 40.4% shooting in 2019-2020.

All in all, the Detroit Pistons are one of the hottest teams in basketball and at this moment they have very few holes in their roster. This team would benefit greatly from more perimeter shooting, and more time to gel together and continue to grow individually. Fixing a three point deficiency by trading multiple, promising young players and picks for a superstar isn’t just unnecessary – trading for Giannis Antetokounmpo would actually make the Detroit Pistons worse today and worse tomorrow.

Research and stats from teamrankings.com, statmuse.com, and ESPN stats

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