Grading ESPN’s hypothetical Bucks-Mavericks Luka Doncic trade

From the Bucks’ perspective, the proposed deal would be a home run. Swapping a 34-year-old Lillard, who is under contract for two more years at $112.5 million with a player option worth $58.4 million in 2026-27, and a distant first-round pick for a 26-year-old Doncic entering his prime would be considered a significant win.

Lillard has been productive this season, averaging 24.9 points, 7.1 assists, 4.7 rebounds, and 1.2 steals per game on 44.8% shooting from the field and 37.6% from three. However, concerns have emerged following his diagnosis of deep vein thrombosis in his right calf, ruling him out indefinitely.

Doncic, by contrast, is averaging 27.6 points, 8.2 rebounds, 7.7 assists, and 1.8 steals while shooting 44.2% from the field and 35.7% from three over 48 games — 26 of which have come with the Los Angeles Lakers since the February 2 trade from Dallas. He remains on a five-year, $215.1 million contract with a player option for the 2026-27 season.

Adding Doncic to a roster featuring Antetokounmpo would represent a generational pairing, offering the Bucks a fresh path forward after a string of underwhelming postseason exits since their 2021 title run. The Bucks have not advanced past the second round since winning the NBA Finals, including a first-round loss to the Miami Heat in 2023 and another early exit to the Indiana Pacers in 2024.

Mavericks trade grade: D

For the Mavericks, this scenario presents a poor return. Trading away Doncic — a five-time All-Star, five-time All-NBA First Team selection, and recent NBA Finals participant — for an aging guard and a distant draft pick would represent a significant step backward for the franchise.

Though Lillard and Kyrie Irving could form a formidable backcourt, their defensive limitations and Lillard’s uncertain health would make title contention unlikely. Even with a frontcourt rotation featuring Dereck Lively II, Daniel Gafford, and PJ Washington, Dallas would lack the star power and long-term stability Doncic provides.

Ultimately, while the Bucks’ hypothetical offer would’ve benefited Milwaukee, Dallas made the stronger choice by prioritizing a more balanced and defensive-minded roster around Irving and Davis.

However, with Irving sidelined by a season-ending ACL tear and Davis missing significant time due to injury, the duo has played together just once — during Davis’ debut in the Mavericks’ February 8 win over the Houston Rockets. With Irving’s future uncertain and Davis carrying a lengthy injury history, it remains unclear whether the two will ever share the court again.