Grayson Allen will go bang for the Bucks

We split our bets on the ice yesterday and welcome back a full NBA board to peruse for props. The most success we've had in this market is focusing on some of the absolute bets, points or threes made. You can't take those stats away, and it removes the ambiguity we so often see in assists and rebounds. With that, two three-point shooters are looking prime for a big Tuesday showing.

It all comes up Grayson Allen tonight

Grayson Allen has been rolling from beyond the arc for Milwaukee, draining 13 treys across his past three games. On what is a balanced Bucks perimeter attack, Allen has been pacing the team in three-point attempts of late, and thus it's him we focus on tonight.

Beyond following the hot hand, the opponent is an incredibly inviting one. That would be the Orlando Magic, a team allowing the fourth-most threes per game. At least two guards against the Magic have covered their three-pointers made prop in each game since prior to the All-Star break, which includes a recent game between Milwaukee and Orlando.

Allen made four threes that day and seems well-positioned to replicate his success. Even beyond the recent makes and attempts, the scheme and offensive fit make sense here. Allen is most definitely not the defensive focus for a team on any night, not while Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday are on the floor. This has given Allen more open looks from deep, and with Allen shooting nearly 60% from deep over his last three games, we have to give him our trust.

Betting: Grayson Allen over 2.5 threes (+135 DK)

Banking on inefficiency turns into makes

The funny thing about this prop market is that it isn't a one-size-fits-all approach. Above, we're betting on Grayson Allen because he's been making his threes. Now, we're following a guy chucking them up like crazy despite the makes not accompanying the volume.

The player in reference here is Cameron Johnson of the Brooklyn Nets. Johnson is averaging 8.0 attempts from long range over his last five games and has seen seven or more shots from deep in seven of his last nine games.

Besides a 7-11 night against the Knicks on March 1, it's been an inefficient run for Johnson. He's gone over tonight's 2.5 line just three times during this stretch, and his last two games have yielded a combined 3-16 from three, good for a paltry 19%.

On one hand, it's nice to follow a hot hand, but on the other, as long as the shots are there, eventually they're going to fall again.

This is the right opportunity to bet on them falling. The Nets face off against the Rockets tonight, and Houston is allowing the most threes per game this season and the fourth-highest 3P%. Johnson saw the Rockets back in the fall and drained five threes on 11 attempts. His role in this offense is clear, and against a soft defense, we like Johnson to find his shooting touch tonight.

Betting: Cameron Johnson over 2.5 threes (-125 DK)

In the news ...

Derek Carr joins the Saints — Derek Carr was in an ideal position to pick and choose his team, as his late release from Las Vegas meant he didn't have to wait for free agency to begin next week. An offseason QB domino finally falls, as Carr joined New Orleans on Monday on a four-year deal with $100M guaranteed. The Saints have been toiling in mediocrity since the retirement of Drew Brees, and the hope here is that Carr stabilizes the most important position in football in what is a wide-open NFC South. The Saints are currently +140 to win their division, the betting favorite.

Geno Smith signs three-year extension with Seattle — After a surprising breakout year that saw Geno Smith win Comeback Player of the Year, the Seahawks have inked their QB to a new deal. Smith and Seattle agreed to a three-year, $105M extension, which seems likely to take them out of the running for drafting a QB at No. 5 in the upcoming draft. Smith made the Pro Bowl last year, throwing for over 4,200 yards and 30 touchdowns, and the Seahawks will look to build on their Wild Card showing in last year's postseason. Seattle is +550 to win the NFC West.
 
Immanuel Quickley now the betting favorite to win Sixth Man of the Year — The awards futures market is such an interesting one to monitor throughout the season, and in the NBA, Knicks guard Immanuel Quickley has turned the Sixth Man of the Year market on its head. Following a 38-point game in Sunday's win over the Celtics, Quickley cemented himself as the favorite to win the award, the latest notch in an incredible journey up the board. Two weeks ago, Quickley was +25000 to win the award. Last week, he was +6600. Prior to the Celtics game, he was +175. Now, he's up to -160 on some books. Thank you for asking, yes we are upset we didn't see the future and get a bet in on him at +25000 a mere 14 days ago. Currently, the only other player seemingly in the running is Boston guard Malcolm Brogdon, +120 to win.

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll