Houston Rockets 2025 NBA Cup West Group C predictions

Below, we’ll break down their game-by-game schedule in the group stage, projecting results and exploring the larger implications of their performance.

Spurs vs Rockets

The Rockets open their NBA Cup campaign on the road against the San Antonio Spurs, a matchup that pits two of the league’s most exciting young cores against one another. Victor Wembanyama and Devin Vassell headline the Spurs, but San Antonio is still figuring out how to surround its generational star with enough spacing and ball-handling.

Houston, meanwhile, is entering the Cup with a more complete roster. The addition of Clint Capela provides a reliable interior anchor to battle Wembanyama in the paint, while Durant’s scoring ensures Houston won’t get bogged down in half-court possessions.

This game is also about tone-setting. Houston needs to start strong in group play to avoid the same inconsistency that plagued them last season. Expect the Rockets’ veterans to stabilize the team on the road, while Durant and Smith should deliver a decisive scoring punch.

Prediction: Rockets win by 8-12 points

Rockets vs Trail Blazers

The second game of the group stage brings Houston home for a clash against the Portland Trail Blazers, a franchise in transition. Damian Lillard has returned to Portland, but with Jerami Grant’s contract weighing them down and Robert Williams III’s health questions, the Blazers are still piecing together a functional roster.

The Rockets’ biggest advantage here is defensive versatility. With Finney-Smith, Capela, and Jabari Smith Jr., Houston has the personnel to throw multiple looks at Lillard, forcing other Blazers to beat them. On the offensive end, Durant remains the matchup nightmare Portland doesn’t have an answer for.

This game also gives Houston the chance to build momentum at home, feeding off the Toyota Center crowd. While the Blazers will fight hard, especially with Scoot Henderson looking to prove himself, the Rockets’ depth and experience should prove too much.

Prediction: Rockets win by 10-15 points.

Rockets vs Nuggets

Here comes the true test of the group stage. The reigning Western Conference powerhouse, Denver, is loaded with Nikola Jokić, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Cam Johnson, Jonas Valančiūnas, and Bruce Brown. The Nuggets were arguably the most improved team of the 2025 offseason and still boast the league’s most unguardable superstar in Jokic.

This matchup will be a measuring stick for the Rockets. Can their new pieces mesh against an elite contender? Can Capela and Şengün hold their own against Jokic’s genius passing and scoring? Can Durant still tilt the floor against a team with multiple defensive stoppers?

The Rockets will fight, and Durant’s presence ensures they won’t get run off the floor. But Denver’s chemistry, continuity, and Jokic’s brilliance make them too tough a hurdle at this stage.

Prediction: Rockets lose a close battle, within 5-7 points

Warriors vs Rockets

The final group-stage matchup might be the most entertaining. The Rockets head to San Francisco to face the Golden State Warriors, a franchise still clinging to its dynasty core of Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. While the Warriors are never to be underestimated in a one-game setting, their age and roster limitations give Houston an opening.

Amen Thompson’s size and athleticism could frustrate Curry, while Jabari Smith Jr. and Finney-Smith can rotate onto Golden State’s shooters. On offense, Durant’s return to the Bay Area adds narrative spice, and you can be sure he’ll relish torching his former team on their home floor.

This game could come down to bench play, and that’s where Houston holds the edge. Their youth and depth, plus the interior presence of Capela, should wear the Warriors down late.

Prediction: Rockets win by 6-9 points

Rockets’ NBA Cup outlook beyond group play

If Houston emerges from Group C with a 3-1 record, they’ll likely advance to the elimination rounds, where they could face heavyweights like the Thunder, Timberwolves, or even the Nuggets again.

The Rockets’ biggest strength is their balance of veterans and young stars. Durant provides a championship-tested closer. Capela and Finney-Smith add defensive structure. And the young core: Şengün, Thompson, Smith Jr., provides the athleticism and unpredictability to win on any given night.

Their biggest weakness, however, is cohesion. Integrating Durant and Capela into a system that already had ball-dominant young players takes time. Against polished units like Denver or Oklahoma City, Houston’s lack of chemistry could be exposed.

Still, the Rockets are one of the dark horses of the 2025 NBA Cup. If they catch fire, there’s no reason they couldn’t make a deep run like they did last year.

The Rockets’ 2025 NBA Cup journey is more than just four games; it’s a litmus test for where this team stands in its ambitious rebuild. Going 3-1 in West Group C would send a message to the rest of the league: Houston is no longer a rebuilding project. They’re ready to compete.

With Durant steering the ship, a balanced supporting cast, and a young core hungry to prove itself, the Rockets should emerge as one of the Cup’s most dangerous teams. They may not win the whole tournament in Year One of this new roster era, but make no mistake: the Rockets are coming.