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Feb 26, 2026; Orlando, Florida, USA; Orlando Magic guard Desmond Bane (3) and forward Paolo Banchero (5) celebrate during the second quarter against the Houston Rockets at Kia Center. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-Imagn Images Mike Watters-Imagn Images

How confident are you that Magic avoid play-in?

Originally posted on Orlando Magic on SI
By Matt Hanifan | Last updated Mar 8, 2026 4:30 PM ET

Don't look now, but with 20 games left, the Orlando Magic are now the No. 6 seed after their win over the Minnesota Timberwolves combined with Philadelphia's loss to the Atlanta Hawks. But there's still plenty of basketball to be played.

On a scale of 1-10, how confident are our panelists that Magic avoid play-in, with 10 being the most confident? Let's examine!

Adel Burton: 4

The Magic have two star players who don’t space the floor in Paolo Banchero (30.7%) and Franz Wagner (36.5%) from 3-point range. The Magic as a team are 25th in the league in 3-point percentage.

They make their living at the free throw line and in the paint. They are number one in the league in free throws attempted. However, in the modern NBA that math doesn’t work if you are bad at 3-point shooting and mid at everything else. The Magic are 16th in net rating, the definition of mid.

Jeremy Brener: 5

The Magic are definitely good enough to play themselves out of the Play-In tournament but that isn't necessarily the question. This is more about whether or not the Magic can execute down the stretch. A lot of that will have to do with when Franz Wagner returns to the lineup after suffering a high ankle sprain but the reality situation is he may not come back at all this season.

Ultimately, there are several teams fighting to stay out of the play-in and the Magic have to lock in and play their best basketball at this point. It won't be easy but given the strength of their schedule in the final 20 or so games of the season, I think there's a good chance the Magic may have to earn their way into the postseason through the Play-In tournament.

Ethan Skolnick: 4

While the Magic are playing better, especially on the road, and while they have the tiebreaker on the Miami Heat, they are close to getting Franz Wagner back, their chance of getting out of the play-in and getting a top-six shot is maybe a 4 out of 10.

That's because it's unlikely that Toronto slips all the way out of a top-6 seed, and if Philadelphia (with Joel Embiid's latest injury issues) falls back too, the Heat are playing equally well to the Magic and their schedule is softer. Orlando looks likely to make a strong push that falls just short.

Matt Hanifan: 6

Anthony Black's recent injury doesn't quell concerns about this team's health. But Orlando is tied for the No. 6 seed and currently one game back of Toronto. It's anyone's race with five weeks left, but Orlando's schedule with Franz Wagner's return looming gives me reason to believe they can avoid the play-in if they -- dare I say -- play consistently good basketball.

Amir Motameni: 4

Right now, they just don’t have a clear identity. The offense has been inconsistent all season, and they currently rank 18th in offensive rating, which makes it hard to put together long winning streaks. What's also concerning is that their defense hasn’t been as dominant. The Magic are 12th in defensive rating this season after finishing 2nd last year, so even that advantage has slipped. Without a consistent offense or an elite defense to lean on, it’s hard to feel very confident they can climb all the way to the 6th seed.