How Does the NBA Draft Lottery Work? A Look at The Odds for the No. 1 Pick

The NBA Draft is almost as old as the league itself, dating to 1947, when the league was still known as the Basketball Association of America.

The first pick that year isn't a household name: Clifton McNeely from Texas Wesleyan. He's a trivia answer next to the names of other No. 1 overall picks, such as LeBron James, Tim Duncan, Magic Johnson and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.

Each summer, the NBA Draft takes place with two rounds. Each round is generally composed of 30 picks, but teams are occasionally docked picks as discipline for malfeasance. A lottery system determines the order of the first 14 picks. Those picks represent teams that didn't make the playoffs. The final 16 picks are arranged in reverse order of the regular-season records of playoff teams.

Picks are eligible to be traded up to seven years in the future, and teams often mortgage their draft capital for present-day assets. Let's take a look at how the NBA Draft lottery process takes place:

How Does the NBA Draft Lottery Work?

The lottery is a weighted system that gives the nonplayoff team with the best record the worst odds at the top pick. The odds increase for each team with a lesser record thereafter.

The lottery uses 14 numbered ping-pong balls. Four balls are drawn to create a combination. There are 1,001 possible combinations.

This drawing is only for the first four picks. Nos. 5 through 14 are then determined in reverse order of regular-season record. The process is overseen by Ernst & Young, an independent accounting firm.

Below are the odds for each nonplayoff team to win the No. 1 overall pick:

• Team 1: 14.0%
• Team 2: 14.0%
• Team 3: 14.0%
• Team 4: 12.5%
• Team 5: 10.5%
• Team 6: 9.0%
• Team 7: 7.5%
• Team 8: 6.0%
• Team 9: 4.5%
• Team 10: 3.0%
• Team 11: 2.0%
• Team 12: 1.5%
• Team 13: 1.0%
• Team 14: 0.5%

Anomalies Occurred in the 2025 Draft Lottery

In 2025, five ties were broken among lottery teams with identical regular-season records via random drawings. The drawings were conducted by NBA president of league pperations Byron Spruell at the NBA office in Secaucus, New Jersey. The tiebreaker process was overseen by Marc Dieli, a partner from Ernst & Young.

The Dallas Mavericks won the 2025 lottery with the fourth-worst odds (1.8%) among the teams. They used that No. 1 pick to select Duke forward Cooper Flagg. The Utah Jazz were unlucky, as they had the worst record (tied for best odds for top pick) but did not snag any of the top four picks. This misfortune slid them to fifth.

History of the NBA Draft Lottery

The lottery was adopted in 1985, but it was initially only for the first overall pick. The New York Knicks were the winner of the inaugural lottery and selected future Hall of Fame center Patrick Ewing with that pick. In 1987, the NBA tweaked the lottery to determine the first three picks. An envelope system was used from 1985-90, and the weighted system was introduced in 1990.

In 1993, the NBA altered the lottery odds. The team with the worst record went from having a 16.7% chance at the top pick to a 25% chance. That same year, the Orlando Magic won the lottery with the worst possible odds (1.5%), which was the largest upset since the lottery had been introduced. In 1994, numbered ping-pong balls were introduced.

In 2019, the NBA tweaked the odds so that the three teams with the worst records have equal chances at the top pick. This was installed to combat a trend of tanking for better odds at that pick. The league also added a fourth team to the lottery system that year.