How Good Can Kings F Keegan Murray Be Next Season? The Bottom Line

Not only has he been more than willing to play any role asked of him, but he also set the NBA rookie record for most triples made in a season, shooting a blistering 41%. Last season, Murray struggled to be as effective with DeMar DeRozan and, later, Zach LaVine, taking on big roles in the offense. 34% from deep is still decent, but it was nowhere near what Murray is capable of. 

With the addition of Dennis Schroder being the only change to the starting lineup, it’s fair to worry that Murray will fall into some of the same pitfalls as last season. As Murray turns 25, I take a look at his role on the Kings next season and some things to watch for.

Offense

Offensively, Murray’s role is going to be very similar to what it was last season. He’ll be expected to play mostly off-ball with DeRozan, LaVine, Sabonis, and Schroder handling the majority of the offensive creation duties. 

His usage was at its lowest number last season, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that number dip under 15% for this season with Schroder jumping on board. Some would argue that this should lead to more open shots for Murray, but the numbers tell a different story. 

From the 2023-24 season to last season, Murray’s wide-open three-point attempts per game dropped from 4 to 3.6, and his early shot clock attempts also dropped from 1.6 to 1.2. This may seem like a small difference, but the numbers match the eye test that Murray isn’t getting as many opportunities on set plays. 

Some of this is to be expected with the on-ball talent Sacramento has, but shooters tend to struggle when their teams don’t make them an emphasis in the offense. 

Luckily for Murray and Sacramento, he’s more than capable of finding ways to contribute without having plays drawn up for him. Last season, Murray shot 83% within 3 feet of the rim as he took advantage of his size and shooting gravity. 

With all the ball-watching that comes with defending a team that has two of the best isolation players in the league, there should be plenty of cutting opportunities for Murray to take advantage of. None of this is ideal, as Sacramento should be working to develop Murray’s offense, but I’m confident Keegan will happily take on any role that is asked of him. 

Defense

Murray’s defense has gotten better and better during his time in the league, and he often draws the toughest assignments for the Kings. Despite often being the only plus defender on the court for Sacramento, Murray has excelled as both an isolation defender and a rim protector. 

According to BBall Index, Murray was one of only five players to finish in the 85th percentile or higher in both metrics last season. The rest of the list included Alex Caruso, Amen Thompson, Jalen Williams, and Ausar Thompson. 

This season, Murray will still be the best defender in the starting lineup, but he may have a bit of a break when it comes to defending guards. Schroder isn’t exactly an elite defender, but he’s more than capable of making life frustrating for opposing guards. Adding Schroder should allow Murray to avoid defensive assignments like Steph Curry and other smaller guards who tend to be tough matchups. The Kings still have a rough outlook defensively, but keeping Murray on wings and forwards should help a bit. 

What to Expect

Schroder may help make things a bit easier for Murray next season, but I’m sure I’m part of the majority that wishes this offseason had gone differently. It’s fair to dream about a world where Murray is a top-three option offensively and gets to share the court with another elite defender in Keon Ellis, but that isn’t going to be the reality this season. 

This year is pivotal for the extension-eligible Murray, and the Kings aren’t doing him any favors with the team surrounding him. There’s no doubt that Murray will be a positive on both ends of the court, but the questions about limiting his ceiling will likely linger throughout the season.