Jan 17, 2026; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Heat guard Norman Powell (24) reacts after scoring against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the second quarter at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

How has Miami performed based off preseason projections?

Originally posted on Miami Heat on SI | By Major Passons | Last updated Jan 19, 2026 10:25 PM ET

As we pass the halfway point of the NBA season it is common place for media, and even teams themselves, to evaluate how the season is going for each team. Kevin Pelton, ESPN writer and podcaster, is the latest to give out his grades.

For the Miami Heat, Pelton points out that at the start of the season they were projected to win just 38.5 games, which obviously would put them with a losing record. Now at the halfway point in the year, that projection is at 45.4 wins. That means the Heat are currently outperforming what they were projected up until this point in the season.

What Pelton has to say

Because of their overperformance Pelton grades the Heat’s season as a B so far. Pelton details the reasoning for his grade:

“Evaluating the Heat requires looking past their 22-20 record, which puts them eighth in the East. Miami's plus-1.6 differential, along with the league's easiest remaining schedule according to the BPI, inspires confidence that the Heat have a good shot at avoiding the play-in tournament. For all the focus on Miami's unorthodox new offense, which eschews pick-and-rolls in favor of driving and dishing, the Heat have stayed afloat primarily because of a top-five defense. If they can pair that with more offensive production and a healthy Tyler Herro after he missed 30 games, Miami will finish the season strong and improve this grade.

I think Pelton hits the nail on the head here for this grade. It has been a better season than most predicted, but it could also easily be better. The Heat has had a very up and down season. They started the year on fire but cooled down in December. Miami has started to play good basketball once again and recently picked up a huge win over the OKC Thunder, who still have the best record in the league by multiple games.

It could get even better from here

Maybe the most notable thing pointed out in his summary is that Miami has the easiest reaming schedule in the whole NBA. This is something that obviously bodes well for Miami to be able to go on a run of victories as the season moves along. The schedule is even more important for a team like the Heat because they have struggled against teams above .500 (10 – 17) but have excelled against teams below .500 (12 – 3).

As the season continues to move along, it becomes clearer that this team is better than many thought. With the schedule becoming easier, and the team finding their rhythm again it would not be shocking for the Heat’s end of season grade to be even better than their midseason grade.