How much confidence should you have in the NBA's new contenders?

The Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder finished last season with similar records (42 wins and 40 wins, respectively) but entered this season on seemingly disparate trajectories. 

For the Wolves, an underwhelming 2022-23 season led to questions about whether the team's roster makeup can mesh. Anthony Edwards proved to be on a track to stardom, sure, but Rudy Gobert looked like a clunky fit after a blockbuster trade brought him to the Wolves, Karl-Anthony Towns missed most of the season with injury and head coach Chris Finch started to draw the ire of Wolves fans for lack of team improvement — whether fair or not.

For Oklahoma City though, a 40-42 record last year was viewed as a massive step in the right direction. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander earned All-NBA honors, Jalen Williams showed flashes of a future star and Chet Holmgren was waiting in the wings as he recovered from a foot injury. 

The two teams appeared to be headed in opposite directions. But almost at the halfway mark of the NBA season, OKC and Minnesota are now on the same trajectory, and (realistically) hoping for the same outcome: an NBA title. 

But of course, when new contenders arrive on the NBA scene, they'll first be stopped for questioning. How much confidence should you have in each team's ability to win a championship?

The Timberwolves certainly look like a championship team. They defend well (first in defensive rating) have a rim-protecting center in Gobert (2.1 BPG) and a floor-spacing big in Towns (39.4% 3PT) and versatile two-way pieces all throughout the roster. 

If this team matches up with defending champ Denver, it theoretically has the defensive length to deter Nikola Jokic and the wing stoppers to compete with a team like the Clippers.

The knocks Minnesota are its 19th-ranked offense and its lack of experience — most Wolves players have never made deep playoff runs before. Mike Conley brings 78 games of postseason experience, but other than him, Minnesota's young core is all pretty inexperienced in the postseason.

But lack of experience and an OK offense (that's still led by an elite scorer in Edwards) both feel like adversities that a team like Minnesota can overcome. Honestly, this Wolves team is built for the postseason. 

Having confidence in the Wolves feels weird because of Minnesota's historical lack of success, but this team has done nothing to make us think they'll falter come playoff time — even with an offense that lacks a third reliable shot-creator. Believe in the Wolves.

OKC, on the other hand, is trying to dismantle the idea that rebuilds need to be gradual. A 45-ish win season would have been a logical next step for the Thunder, but a 23-10 start has Thunder fans dreaming of loftier goals. 

This Thunder team conjures memories of Memphis in 2021-22. The year prior, Memphis showed some fight and appeared to be on its way toward contention down the line. But Ja Morant and company didn't wait for "down the line" and won 56 games the next season, plus a playoff series.

These Thunder play like they don't know they can lose. They ooze confidence — and for good reason. They own a top-seven offense and defense, are headed by a real MVP candidate in Gilgeous-Alexander and shoot the best three-point percentage in the league. But winning it all on their first go-around with this team would be unprecedented. 

Look at the 2012-13 Warriors. In Stephen Curry's breakout season, the 51-31 Warriors were the young, fun team to beat ... and then lost in the first round of the playoffs. We're pretty confident in saying that Oklahoma City won't do that — even a WCF run seems realistic. But a Finals run from this team would be stunning, no matter how you slice it.

Roster-wise, the Thunder don't have many holes, but they may lack the consistent size to match up with teams that deploy a center who likes to play down low. Holmgren is outrageously talented, but he's the only real big on this roster. 

Would OKC feel comfortable leaving him on an island with Jokic or — if it gets to that point — Joel Embiid or Giannis Antetokounmpo? Probably not (and that's really no fault of Holmgren's because no one wants to be on that island.) 

OKC's time is coming, and betting against such a fun team seems silly. But history tells us that these playoffs are a stepping stone for the Thunder, and not the final stone.