How Often Have Teams Gotten the First Pick Right in NBA Draft?

It was last Sunday that the Atlanta Hawks won the draft lottery which gives them the first overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. It was a surprising result as they had just a 3% chance of winning the lottery. While the lottery hasn’t always been done in the same fashion, the first draft lottery took place in 1985. Let’s take a look at how often since then the team selecting first took the best overall player in that draft class.

The past drafts are listed below in four categories. First is those that definitely drafted the best player. Next comes those who may have drafted the best, but it can be debated. After is those who may not have selected the best, but they can’t be disappointed with their choice. Finally, it ends with those that were just flat-out misses. Of course, the drafts that have active players still in them could change over time.

How Often Have Teams Gotten the First Pick Right in the NBA Draft?

Definitely Got it Right

• 1987 – David Robinson (Scottie Pippen)
• 1992 – Shaquille O’Neal (Alonzo Mourning)
• 1993 – Chris Webber (Anfernee Hardaway)
• 1997 – Tim Duncan (Tracy McGrady)
• 2003 – LeBron James (Dwyane Wade)
• 2004 – Dwight Howard (Andre Iguodala)
• 2012 – Anthony Davis (Damian Lillard)
• 2020 – Anthony Edwards (Tyrese Haliburton)
• 2022 – Paolo Banchero (Chet Holmgren)
• 2023 – Victor Wembanyama (Brandon Miller)

(Players listed in parentheses are who I consider to be the second-best in that year’s draft.)

The recent drafts on here are subject to change, although I don’t expect Edwards or Wembanyama to be surpassed. Additionally, Holmgren was excellent in his rookie season after missing his whole first year so that one could be in question at some point. It can be argued that Hardaway had a higher ceiling than Webber. The problem is that injuries piled up which caused his career to begin falling off before the age of 30.

Can Be Debated That Best Player was Selected First

• 2000 – Kenyon Martin (Jamal Crawford, Michael Redd)
• 2015 – Karl-Anthony Towns (Devin Booker)
• 2019 – Zion Williamson (Ja Morant)
• 2021 – Cade Cunningham (Scottie Barnes, Evan Mobley)

(Players in parentheses also have a case to be considered the best of their draft class.)

Overall, the 2000 draft class has long been seen as one of the worst in NBA history. Both Martin and Redd were named to one All-Star team. Crawford’s lengthy career saw him score 19,419 points altogether.

Maybe Not the Best, but Team Probably Doesn’t Regret Choice

• 1985 – Patrick Ewing (Karl Malone)
• 1986 – Brad Daugherty (Dennis Rodman)
• 1988 – Danny Manning (Mitch Richmond)
• 1991 – Larry Johnson (Dikembe Mutombo)
• 1996 – Allen Iverson (Kobe Bryant)
• 1999 – Elton Brand (Manu Ginobili, Shawn Marion)
• 2002 – Yao Ming (Amar’e Stoudemire)
• 2008 – Derrick Rose (Russell Westbrook)
• 2009 – Blake Griffin (Stephen Curry)
• 2010 – John Wall (Paul George)
• 2011 – Kyrie Irving (Kawhi Leonard)
• 2016 – Ben Simmons (Domantas Sabonis, Pascal Siakam, Brandon Ingram, Jaylen Brown, Jamal Murray)

(Players listed in parentheses may be considered better all-time than the first overall pick, but the teams that selected first overall can’t be disappointed in their selection.)

It could be argued that Simmons could be listed in the swing and the miss category, and maybe he will be moved there if he doesn’t get his career going again. Nevertheless, he brought a ton of value to the Philadelphia 76ers to start his career by earning three All-Star nods and two All-Defensive Team honors over his first four seasons.

Swing and a Miss

• 1989 – Pervis Ellison (Tim Hardaway, Shawn Kemp)
• 1990 – Derrick Coleman (Gary Payton)
• 1994 – Glenn Robinson (Jason Kidd)
• 1995 – Joe Smith (Kevin Garnett)
• 1998 – Michael Olowokandi (Dirk Nowitzki)
• 2001 – Kwame Brown (Pau Gasol, Tony Parker)
• 2005 – Andrew Bogut (Chris Paul)
• 2006 – Andrea Bargnani (Kyle Lowry, LaMarcus Aldridge, Rajon Rondo)
• 2007 – Greg Oden (Kevin Durant)
• 2013 – Anthony Bennett (Giannis Antetokounmpo)
• 2014 – Andrew Wiggins (Nikola Jokic)
• 2017 – Markelle Fultz (Jayson Tatum)
• 2018 – Deandre Ayton (Luka Doncic)

(Players listed in parentheses have had/are having much better careers than the first overall pick.)

Coleman and Robinson belong in the previous category. The problem is they were selected over two of the best point guards in NBA history in both Payton and Kidd, thus why they are placed here.