Is the Timberwolves’ second-half improvement a mirage?

The Minnesota Timberwolves haven't yet justified their decision to trade Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo in October. Still, they're improving at the right time. The team has won 12 of its last 15 games after starting 32-29 and will face the Brooklyn Nets (25-51) at 7:30 p.m. EST on Thursday.

Minnesota is on a hot streak because players like Randle and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are stepping up to help Anthony Edwards offensively. Both scored 26 points in the 140-139 double-overtime win over the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday, and Randle has tallied at least 20 points in eight of his last 15 games.

The Timberwolves will finish with a worse record than last season when they went 56-26 before advancing to the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2004 and only the second time in franchise history. They then fell to the Dallas Mavericks in five games, partially because of their lack of offense outside Edwards.

That same issue will likely be their downfall in this year's postseason, too, despite their recent form. Edwards averages 27.3 points per game this season compared to last season's 25.9, but Randle is a less effective second option than Towns. The former averages 18.9 points on 48.2 percent shooting (33.3 percent 3 PT), while the latter posted 21.8 on a 50.4 percent clip (41.6 percent 3 PT) in 2023-24. 

DiVincenzo adds more outside shooting, averaging 11.6 points on a 41.6 percent clip (39.3 percent 3 PT). But it's hard to spin the trade positively for Minnesota, as Towns is posting 24.3 points on 52.1 percent shooting (42.4 percent 3 PT) with 12.8 rebounds, the latter of which ranks second in the NBA. Meanwhile, the Knicks (48-28) are four games ahead of the Timberwolves, albeit in different conferences.

Minnesota has slightly improved its offensive rating this season, meaning the number of points it scores per 100 possessions. It's 115.3 compared to 114.6 in 2023-24 via NBA Advanced Stats. However, that marginal difference isn't enough to favor it against a team like the Los Angeles Lakers in the playoffs, who it would face in the first round if the season ended now. The Lakers have three dangerous scorers in Luka Doncic (27.2 PPG), LeBron James (24.4 PPG) and Austin Reaves (19.9 PPG).

In short, the Timberwolves' current hot streak won't last throughout the playoffs when opposing teams increase their defensive effort. Being a third seed last season helped them make a deeper run, as they swept the inferior Phoenix Suns before upsetting the Denver Nuggets in seven games. 

It'll be hard-pressed to return to the conference finals this season, especially if it slides into play-in territory. It's tied with the Los Angeles Clippers and Memphis Grizzlies for the sixth seed but is just a half-game behind the Golden State Warriors.