Reigning MVP Joel Embiid has suffered another unfortunate injury setback in a career full of them. The Philadelphia 76ers announced Thursday that Embiid suffered an injury to the lateral meniscus in his left leg. The team announced he would be out through the weekend while a treatment plan is finalized.
Re: Joel Embiid: This is Embiid's second tear in his left lateral meniscus. He missed the final 37 game of the 2016-17 regular season and ultimately underwent a partial meniscectomy (removal). The location of this latest injury remains the key to possible treatment options.
— Jeff Stotts (@InStreetClothes) February 2, 2024
The announcement comes after Embiid suffered the injury in Tuesday's loss against the Golden State Warriors. Warriors forward Jonathan Kuminga fell on Embiid, who left the game soon after. Embiid, however, had not looked right the entire night. After the game, coach Nick Nurse said the injury was unrelated to the issues that kept him out two games and induced a great deal of media criticism over missing Saturday's game in Denver, including from this writer.
Regardless of the context of the injury, there will be an understandably strong reaction to the criticism he received, given he was clearly hurt. No NBA writer wants to see anyone injured, and while it was still a baffling decision not to include Embiid on the injury report in advance of the Nuggets game — a decision that solicited a fine from the league Thursday — there's also no question Embiid was not in good enough health to play in the Nuggets game, the subsequent Blazers game or the game he tried to play in versus the Warriors when he sustained the injury.
The Athletic reported that Embiid felt pressure to compete because of the media scrutiny surrounding his availability for the Nuggets game. Again, this writer was part of that criticism, and regrets that he helped generate an environment in which a player may have put his long-term health at risk.
But Embiid is out now, and there are massive ramifications from the injury.
Clearly, losing the league's leading scorer around which they had organized their entire team, will have drastic impacts on the 76ers' playoff chances.
Embiid may not need surgery; players sometimes elect to manage the injury through rest. Embiid, in fact, suffered a small tear in the 2021 playoffs vs. the Wizards and returned to play in Game 1 of the next series.
If Embiid does elect for surgery, there are two outcomes:
To sum up:
Rest: Weeks
Removal: 6-8 weeks
Repair: Rest of season
Either of the two outcomes that would keep him out weeks would put a great deal of value on 76ers futures. Philadelphia will lose more games than if he had played and likely slide to the 6th seed or play-in. But with Embiid, the 76ers would still profile as a team I thought was the best value for Eastern Conference title futures.
But the books have to respond to the injury and adjust the odds accordingly. So the best play for bettors, if it's announced he'll return this season, is to wait to see the 76ers slide in the standings, prompting the books to be forced to lengthen their odds, and then bet them. They are more than capable of making the Finals as long as Embiid is available for the playoffs.
If Embiid is out the rest of the year, obviously, that's done. The 76ers are still very good in the non-Embiid minutes, averaging a +3.1 net rating without him on the floor this season. But those are staggered minutes against mixed-bench lineups. Philadelphia is 3-9 straight up and 5-7 ATS this season without Embiid. They'll certainly slide, likely all the way out of the playoffs unless Daryl Morey and the 76ers front office cash in their assets for a third star to pair with first-time All-Star Tyrese Maxey.
Hopefully, Embiid can return this season. If he can, 76ers Eastern Conference title futures will be worth betting.
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