Lakers Expected to Win Timberwolves Series for Surprising Reason

In that initial bout, the Timberwolves shot 21-of-42 (50 percent) from the field, an excellent number that likely cannot be sustained over the course of a full best-of-seven series.

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Pagaduan then proceeded to chastise the Lakers' lackluster defensive strategies in Game 1 designed to stop Minnesota along the perimeter.

"The way the Lakers played defense did not help matters whatsoever," Pagaduan writes. "They helped off of three-point shooters despite being one pass away on the strong side while loading up on the strong side to prevent drives opened up a ton of three-point looks for Minnesota."

While it may be understandable that Minnesota, a prolific three-point shooting squad during the 2024-25 regular season en route to a 49-33 record, can put up a great night, the law of averages dictates that the team will fall to earth throughout the series.

"The Timberwolves ranked fifth this past regular season in made threes per game with 15.0, and they were fairly efficient in their attempts, ranking fourth in three-point percentage (37.7) on the year. Thus, a three-point explosion is no fluke, and this is why the series will not be an easy one whatsoever for the Lakers," Pagaduan adds. "But three-point production tends to even out throughout the course of the series. For the Timberwolves to shoot their average percentage from three on the year in this series, they will have to go 10-for-42 from three in Game 2. When a team shoots 23.8 percent from three, that team typically loses."

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Still, Pagaduan allows that the Timberwolves' long range sniping could sustain itself enough for the Timberwolves to win three more games in this series. Minnesota is also a deep, athletic squad with more versatility in its frontcourt and better perimeter defense than L.A. can offer.

"There is a possibility, in a sample of (at most) seven games, the Timberwolves simply shoot the lights out and knock the Lakers out of playoff contention," Pagaduan notes. "But the law of averages is a law for a reason, and the Lakers can at least trust that some regression will be coming in their favor."

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