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Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

LakeShow and Luka set to cash tonight

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated Apr 7, 2023 10:04 AM ET

Good question, yes, we did cash both of our NHL plays yesterday! You're welcome.

Now it's off to hoops. The Western Conference race in the NBA is certainly full of intrigue as we inch closer to the end of the season, and with the logjam comes plenty of teams jockeying for position. This is an important distinction at this stage in the season: it's imperative we follow teams with motivation to continue with things business as usual. It allows us to trust the rotations and past trends, and that's where our attention goes tonight for a pair of NBA player props.

Let the stars shine bright on Friday night

The Lakers and Mavericks are two teams we need not worry about playing time and desire to win. For Los Angeles, they're currently the seventh seed in the West, with the same record as the Pelicans and within a game of both the Clippers and Warriors. With just two games left, it remains possible for the Lakers to secure a top-six spot in the West and avoid the play-in tournament.

Los Angeles should be able to take care of business tonight against Phoenix. The Suns are secured into the fourth spot and just played last night. It's hard to imagine their starters getting any serious minutes tonight, and that hypothesis is more than backed up by seeing the Lakers as 8.5-point favorites tonight.

In waltzes LeBron James. James has picked up his offensive involvement over the past two games, chucking up 47 field-goal attempts and scoring 70 points. He's also enjoyed some big games against Phoenix, going for 34 and 31 in the past two meetings against the Suns.

Against a shorthanded Suns squad, we like LeBron to keep things rolling, and Outlier backs us up. According to their insights page, James has exceeded 28.5 points in 15 of his last 20 games at home as a favorite, averaging 31.4 points/game.

Betting: LeBron James over 28.5 points (-106 FD)

As we alluded to, the Mavericks are another team we'd like to invest in tonight. They're massive favorites against the Bulls, and the context there is quite clear. Dallas is a half-game back on the Thunder for the 10th and final spot in the play-in tournament, while Chicago is locked into its postseason seeding.

For Dallas to jump Oklahoma City, they have to win out, and who better to help them do just that than Luka Doncic?

When you scan Outlier's home page for insights, Doncic meets the eye early and often with a pair of positive trends:

Luka Doncic has exceeded 8.5 rebounds in 10 of his last 11 games at home as a favorite (10.0 rebounds/game average).
Luka Doncic has exceeded 29.5 points in 16 of his last 20 games at home as a favorite (32.8 points/game average).

While Outlier trends are slightly down on Doncic's assists, we still like him to get involved as a facilitator, seeing as he's finished with 10 and 14 dimes in the past two meetings with Chicago.

There are a few ways you can play this. By all means, roll with either his rebounds or points props, but we like them all, so why not combine them?

The simplest way to do that is by loading up Luka's Points + Rebounds + Assists (PRA) prop, set at 45.5 tonight. He's averaging 47.9 PRA per game this season, had 50 PRA against the Bulls the last time he saw them, and coming off one day of rest and playing at home, Luka has gone over this line in 16 of 20 games this season.

Betting: Luka Doncic over 45.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-122 FD)

Outlier Trend of the Day

LeBron James - Rebounds
LeBron James has exceeded 7.5 rebounds in 11 of his last 12 games against opponents with a winning record (9.0 rebounds/game average).

Over 7.5 rebounds (-120 FD)

In the news...

The Masters Round 1 in the books - Round 1 in Augusta is all set, and by the time this hits your inbox, we'll be deep into Round 2. Day one saw Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka and Viktor Hovland all shoot 65, tied at the top of the leaderboard. For secondary storylines, keep an eye on amateur Sam Bennett. Bennett opened his round on Thursday with a birdie and eagle, quite the entrance. Bennett's 68 had him tied for sixth after one round, and we had to sprinkle on him to finish in the top 10 at +750.

Cale Makar out indefinitely for Colorado Avalanche - The defending Stanley Cup champs got some troubling news on Thursday, as star defenseman Cale Makar will be out indefinitely. Makar won the Norris and Conn Smythe trophies last season and was an integral part of their championship run. Colorado is currently right in the mix for the top seed in their division, and there's no telling how long Makar will be out. The news has yet to affect their futures odds: the Avalanche are the favorites to win the West at +275. Might we suggest looking elsewhere? Edmonton at +300 and Minnesota at +900 to advance to the Stanley Cup final are two that stand out.

Bryce Young's odds skyrocketing to be drafted first - Thursday brought with it some wild market fluctuation for the NFL Draft odds. A report from Chris Mortensen suggested that Carolina is leaning towards Alabama QB Bryce Young with the first pick in the upcoming draft. The assumption has been CJ Stroud is the guy, and after Stroud opened the day at -250 to be taken first, he currently sits at -125. Young has jumped from +200 to -105 to be the first pick at the end of April.

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll

Griffin Carroll

Griffin Carroll is focused on bringing you the betting numbers that matter. With a focus on the NFL, NHL and NBA, Griffin relies on a data-driven betting approach for prop bets, spread picks and over/unders.

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