Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Game 2 prediction: NBA expert pick, odds for Fri. 5/24

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Odds

Friday, May 24, 8:30 p.m. ET, TNT

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks continue to be without Maxi Kleber (shoulder), which has thinned out their options in their big man rotation. While it has not been an issue yet, his status is something to monitor throughout the series.

In Game 1, the story was all about how Dallas dominated on the interior, shooting nearly 60% from inside the arc. The Mavs made just six 3s on 25 attempts and were easily outscored from 3-point range, but those were stylistic choices they made. Dallas won the rebounding battle as well, 49-40, which is always surprising against a team with Rudy Gobert on the interior. Ultimately, the Mavs were able to dictate the pace and tempo of the game against what looked to be a tired Wolves squad.

One of the key pivot points for Dallas was that it got strong scoring performances from both Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic. Irving started the game with an electric first half and finished with 30 points, five rebounds and four assists while Doncic had a game-high 33 points, six rebounds and eight assists. Irving dominated the first half but made just one shot in the second half, while Doncic closed the game out strong with a 15-point fourth quarter.

It was clear that Anthony Edwards was worn out from trying to cover Irving in the first half and then Jaden McDaniels was simply no match for Doncic down the stretch. Minnesota played far too much drop coverage and Doncic eviscerated that at the end of the game. In Game 2, Dallas will need to replicate that type of offensive efficiency against a staunch Minnesota defense.

One rotation to watch is Dereck Lively II's.

Those are wild splits. Lively could use more time on the floor in general, but his impact is one to keep an eye on moving forward. He played 26 minutes and put up a nine points, 11 rebounds and three assists.

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves looked tired in Game 1 and it showed in their offensive process. Minnesota took an extremely uncharacteristic 49 attempts from 3-point range — 51.6% of its shots. That was their highest single-game ratio of 3-point shots in any game this season. That is not their game and Dallas baited their tired legs into it. Edwards took 16 shots in Game 1 with just four of them coming from inside of the arc. While he was successful on his 3s (5-of-12), that is not the style of offense we are accustomed to from him. Edwards did not get into the teeth of the defense or make the Mavericks truly work to defend him. I expect that to swing in Game 2.

Outside of the shot selection, there are a few other modifications the Wolves can make in this game. One of those is the re-introduction of Kyle Anderson to the rotation. He was solid in his minutes and had 11 points, two rebounds and two assists in 17 minutes. Anderson was played off the floor last series, but he has a clear role here. His size is usable to defend Dončić, but his creation is more important. He can be used as a secondary facilitator to open things up for Minnesota and make sure it runs an efficient offense. His rebounds + assists line is set at 3.5 in Game 2, and I'll grab that over. When Anderson has played between 10 and 17 minutes this season, he has averaged 4.6 RA and is 12-of-18 on this line. This season during the playoffs, he is averaging 4.6 RA, but that includes a few games with 4.9, 6.2 and 4.1 minutes played.

One thing Minnesota should try to lean on is its transition offense. In Game 1, Minnesota was a +9.4 in transition opportunities, scoring a whopping 190.9 points per 100 plays. They specifically crushed off live rebounds. This is something the Wolves should be able to capitalize on, especially if they continue to pursue the rim on offense and get one of Daniel Gafford or Lively into some foul trouble. Minnesota has a distinct size advantage and I expect them to be reenergized to attack and exploit that in Game 2.

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves

Betting Pick & Prediction

Our Brandon Anderson said in his column after Game 1, "Historically, Game 2 looks like a great spot to back the Timberwolves. Home teams coming off a Game 1 loss by more than two points are 44-24-2 ATS (65%) in Game 2 since 2004, and that leaps to 39-14-2 ATS (74%) for just the top-three seeds. But games aren't won on trends alone."

Those trends give some guidance for this spot, but they are not indicative of future success. Here, I think much of Minnesota's issues were due to scheme. They were baited into poor offensive process and need to tighten things up on the defensive side of the ball in the non-Gobert minutes. Minnesota has the talent to do so while evening up this series.

Considering they had such a far off scheme from their traditional offense in Game 1, I expect the Wolves to work to get Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns more involved in the offense. While Edwards was able to dish well in Game 1, unless he is going to put up a prime James Harden performance with points and assists, that is not necessarily an optimal game plan for the Wolves. Expect both Edwards and Towns to be aggressive in Game 2 and even up this series.

Pick: Timberwolves -5