Miami Heat are Longshot to Make Play-In History, but Other East Foes Face Longer Odds

Although the Miami Heat enter the NBA playoffs as the Eastern Conference’s No. 10 seed, DraftKings odds forecast that they’re more likely to win a championship than two of the three other play-in participants.

The Heat are +150000 to win the championship this season, making their odds 15,000-to-1. The Atlanta Hawks are +200000 (20,000/1), which are identical odds to those of Miami’s play-in opponent, the Chicago Bulls. Only the Dallas Mavericks are listed as that significant a longshot among Western Conference teams.

Entering the final day of the NBA’s regular season, the Oklahoma City Thunder (+165) and the Boston Celtics (+205) were deemed the favorites to win the title and were heavy ‘chalk’ to win their respective conferences. OKC was -130 ($130 to win $100) to represent the West in the NBA Finals, per DraftKings, while the defending champion Celtics were -135 ($135 to win $100) to repeat as East champs. 

The Heat are +40000 (4,000/1) to win the Eastern Conference for the second time in three years, which are worse odds than any other team playing beyond Game 82 except for the Bulls (+50000).

If you’re looking to back Miami to advance past the play-in and reach the conventional playoff round, you can do so at plus-money. The Heat are +295 to qualify for the postseason as the No. 8 seed, which means you can nearly triple your investment if you believe they’ll defeat the Bulls and the loser of the 7/8 play-in matchup between the Hawks and Magic.

The option of fading Miami to notch both victories required to secure a date with the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers is available at -390 ($390 to win $100). Only the Bulls have worse odds among East teams (-550), while the Sacramento Kings (-600) and Dallas Mavericks (-1200) face longer odds out West due to the perceived strength of that conference's No. 7 and No. 8 seeds.

The Heat famously advanced to the NBA Finals in 2023 out of the play-in round, finishing with the East’s seventh-best record and losing the play-in opener before beating the Bulls in an elimination game for the No. 8 seed to begin their unlikely run. Miami was the No. 8 seed last year too, losing its opening play-in game at Philadelphia before blowing out the Bulls at home.

Since the play-in tournament was expanded to include 10 teams for the 2020-21 postseason, No. 10 seeds are a combined 2-8 and have never advanced to the playoffs as the No. 8 seed.

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Tony Mejia is a contributor to Miami Heat On SI. He can be reached at tnyce1414@gmail.com