Miami Heat-Atlanta Hawks Recent History Nearly Featured $1 Billion Bet

The Miami Heat have gotten the better of the Atlanta Hawks in each of the past three years. After dropping the 2020-21 regular-series 3-1, Miami has won 15 of 20 matchups against a Southeast Division rival, including a 4-1 conquest in the Eastern Conference first round back in '22. 

Charles Barkley was so sure the Heat would win the play-in matchup these teams played in '23 that he tried to bet TNT co-host Shaquille O'Neal $1 billion on the game. Miami lost 116-105 but went on to win the No. 8 seed over the Bulls and eventually make the NBA Finals.

This past season marked the first time Atlanta was able to pick up a split in the series, winning the first two games at State Farm Arena before dropping the last two meetings in South Florida. Oddsmakers have basically made this game a pick'em, with both teams favored by a point depending on what sportsbook you look at.

Below is a snapshot of how the matchups between these teams unfolded:

Dec. 28 - Atlanta Hawks won 120-110 at State Farm Arena

The Hawks dominated Miami from start to finish in a game that didn't feature Jimmy Butler since he was ramping up for what would eventually be a Jan. 1 return. Tyler Herro led Miami with 28 points and 10 assists, but Jalen Johnson's 28 points and 13 rebounds and DeAndre Hunter's 26 points off the bench were too much for Miami to overcome in a game they led for most of the first quarter before surrendering a 22-8 run over the final four minutes. Johnson would soon be lost for the season to shoulder surgery and Hunter was traded to Cleveland. Trae Young was held to just 3-for-13 shooting but did hand out 15 assists.

Feb. 24 - Atlanta Hawks won 98-86 at State Farm Arena

The Heat bested their lowest-scoring output since trading Butler by a single point in a game where they shot just 32.1 percent (27/84), finishing a dreadful 7-for-40 (17.5%) from 3-point range. Andrew Wiggins led the way with 23 points, but Herro shot a dreadful 4-for-19, missing all nine of his 3-point attempts in his third game since winning the 3-point contest at All-Star Weekend. Young distributed 14 assists but shot 0-for-7 from beyond the arc. Dyson Daniels registered seven steals. 

Feb. 26 - Miami Heat won 131-109 at Kaseya Center

Two days after being embarrassed, Miami again kept Young under wraps (17 points, 1-for-6 from 3) and enjoyed one of its most efficient offensive nights. The Heat shot 59.3 percent from the field, hit 23 3-pointers and broke open a game that was tied at 65 at halftime with a 42-point third quarter. Davion Mitchell hit all five of his 3-point tries, while Duncan Robinson made six off the bench. 

March 27- Miami Heat won 122-112 at Kaseya Center

In the most recent matchup, Young got loose for 29 points and 12 assists, while Onyeka Okongwu added 15 points and nine boards, but Miami erased an early double-digit deficit and again shot the light out from 3-point range. Mitchell shot 4-for-5 from beyond the arc as the Heat made 18 of 33 3-pointers, and Herro finished 4-for-6 and scored a game-high 36 points.

Takeaways: Miami hasn't lost with Wiggins on board. Young has struggled with his shooting. Mitchell has hit nine of his last 10 3-pointer against the Hawks after going 0-for-3 in his first game with the Heat in the ATL. This play-in matchup marks the teams return to State Farm Arena since one of their poorest shooting efforts of the season. Three of the four matchups went 'over' the posted betting total.

Tony Mejia is a contributor to Miami Heat On SI. He can be reached at tnyce1414@gmail.com