Miami Heat Open NBA Playoff Series at Cleveland Cavaliers as Heavy Underdog

The Miami Heat reached the NBA Finals as the No. 8 seed in 2023, so after making history in becoming the first No. 10 seed to qualify for the playoffs via the play-in tournament, they head to Cleveland dreaming big.

Oddsmakers have put a big stop sign up, but that hasn't stopped Miami before. The top-seeded Cavaliers are -1800 ($1800 to win ($100) at DraftKings to advance to the Eastern Conference finals over the Heat. That has them even with the West's top seed, the Oklahoma City Thunder, as the second-heaviest favorite to advance in the entire first round. 

The Boston Celtics (-5000) are the team deemed most likely to advance by sportsbooks in their East 2-7 series against the Orlando Magic. Like the Grizzlies against OKC, the Heat are +900 ($100 wins $900) to upset Cleveland. Miami eliminated the Milwaukee Bucks in the '03 1 vs. 8 East matchup.

Following his 30-point effort to help lead Miami to an OT win in Atlanta to secure the eighth and final East playoff spot, All-Star guard Tyler Herro said his team had packed for nine days upon embarking on their play-in journey with an opener in Chicago on Wednesday. 

Despite being prepared, the Heat face long odds as they look to match their accomplishment from two years ago by becoming the seventh team to advance past a top seed. No. 8 seeds are 6-76 (7.3%) in first-round series since the NBA expanded to 16 playoff teams in 1983-84.

The Cavaliers were listed as a 12-point favorite against Miami for Sunday's Game 1 with the total in the 215 range. They beat the Heat in two of three regular-season meetings.

DraftKings has the most likely scenarios in the Cavs-Heat series listed as Cleveland winning in four or five games. Betting the total games played in this series pays +165 for a sweep, +190 for a "gentleman's sweep," +400 if you're right that it lasts exactly six games and +550 if it manages to go the max.

Backing the Cavs -1.5 games for the series, which means they'll wrap up advancing inside of seven games, is listed at -525. Betting that Cleveland will eliminate the Heat in five or fewer games by laying -2.5 is a little less chalky but nevertheless an expected outcome (-225). 

Miami +2.5 games, which means it would need to win at least twice, pays +185. The Heat +1.5 games, which means you cash if the series reaches at Game 7, pays +390. If you're all in on the Heat and think they win inside seven games, Miami -1.5 (+1200) or -2.5 (+2200) are potentially lucrative options.

Tony Mejia is a contributor to Miami Heat On SI. He can be reached at tnyce1414@gmail.com