Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks odds and best bet

Miami is a perfect 3-0 since the All-Star break. I am still not sure of the ceiling of this group, but it is clear that if the 76ers, Nets or Bucks want the top spot in the East they are going to have to take it from Miami. Sorry, Bulls fans, I am not sure you deserve to be in that discussion even though you are a fun team right now. 

Milwaukee might be the defending champs, but they definitely have something to prove Wednesday. They lost recent games to the Nets and 76ers, so a home win against the Heat would be a bit of a statement that they are not to be overlooked. They have their top three with Giannis, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday, but their perimeter depth is hurt right now with George Hill and Pat Connaughton out.  

This is definitely the game of the day in the NBA and should have playoff-like intensity. I will be looking forward to PJ Tucker getting into his former teammates as a subplot and playoff preview Wednesday night. 

Game Info

Miami Heat (41-21) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (37-25)
Wednesday, March 2, 2022
8:00 p.m. ET
Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisc.
Bally Sports Wisconsin

Betting Odds

Spread: Heat +4.5 (-110), Bucks -4.5 (-110)
Total: 226.5
Moneyline: Heat +155, Bucks -185

Best Bet

Milwaukee -4

I like this spot for the home team. Yes, Miami is coming in hot and they have been underrated all season long, especially with all of their injuries. That is why their ATS numbers are so strong. 

These teams have met three times this season and in each game, the home team won and covered with ease, by at least 15 points. I look for that trend to continue, though I do not expect Milwaukee to dominate Wednesday evening the way that winning teams have in the series this season. 

Kyle Lowry is out again for Miami Wednesday. The Heat have been able to play well without him, but this is a spot where a little more offensive punch and defensive savvy would definitely be advantageous. 

Milwaukee will lean on Giannis for sure. His numbers against Miami this season has not been impressive, but February was his best month to date, and I think he is going to be as bouncy as ever Wednesday night. I also think this is a spot where Holiday dominates against a Miami backcourt that is the weak spot of the team, especially with Lowry out. Gabe Vincent doesn't scare me one bit.

Look for a fierce game with the home team pulling away late. 

Prop to Consider

Jrue Holiday Over 29.5 Points Rebounds and Assists (-115)

I was going to go with his points total, but I think this one has the same value but a little more cushion because sometimes Holiday's scoring is not always required.

Miamis is tough defensively with an emphasis on the frontcourt, where Tucker, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are all really good. However, the guys who will be guarding Holiday are not nearly as fearsome. Looking back, Holiday would have cleared this number in seven of his last eight games, as his scoring and all-around production were excellent in February, his second-best month of the season. 

It is winning time, and he is a good player to lean on.