NBA best bets and odds: Expert picks, player props and predictions for Celtics vs. Pacers Game 4, Mon. 5/27

Celtics vs. Pacers

Monday, May 27, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN
Celtics -7.5 (BetMGM)

By Matt Moore

Teams that are down 3-0 know the clock's struck midnight. No matter how good your vibes are, no matter how much confidence you had coming in, it all vanishes down 3-0. Players know no team has ever come back down 3-0. A feeling of inevitability sets in.

You win one and then you have to win another, back in their place. You win that one and you have to come home and get one. And then you have to close out on the road.

The trends aren't good for Indiana. Teams with a chance to close out who are favored on the road are 78-36 SU, 65-47-2 (58%) ATS since 2003. Teams in the sweep spot on the road are 50-26 SU and 41-32-3 ATS.

Boston is 5-0 with Jayson Tatum in closeout chances as road favorites (4-1 ATS).

The Pacers got up for Game 3 without Tyrese Haliburton, but that adrenaline rush of being shorthanded is gone and now they're just down their best player. Boston will adjust to how Indiana played without Haliburton in Game 3, taking away that element.

The kicker? Teams with a chance to sweep on the road who go on to win are 40-8-2 (83%) ATS, including 38-8-2 (80%) as a favorite. So, if you think Boston wins, and I do, you should feel confident laying the points.

Pick: Celtics -7.5

Celtics -7.5 (DraftKings)

By Chris Baker

The Pacers ran extremely hot on 2-pointers for most of Game 3, while the Celtics pretty much sleep-walked for most of it.

For most teams that would spell doom, but the Celtics flipped the switch late in the third quarter and ultimately won by three points.

I think we see a little more urgency from the Celtics, and I fear that the Pacers may feel defeated now that they're down 3-0. The Pacers have choked two games now in this series, but we’ve seen that the Celtics are the better team — even when they don’t play their best.

Additionally, this spread makes some sense from an analytical perspective, as the Pacers simply aren’t getting up enough 3s without Haliburton to beat this Celtics squad. The Celtics had a 49% 3-point attempt rate versus the Pacers' 21% 3-point attempt rate in Game 3.

The Celtics didn’t even shoot that well (converting on just 16-of-43 of their looks), but that still equated to 12 more 3s than the Pacers made (4-of-20).

The Pacers can’t keep up with this Celtics team unless they shoot 70-80% on all of their 2s, and we saw that wasn’t sustainable for the entirety of last game.

Trust the Celtics to cover this -7.5 spread and finish this series.

Pick: Celtics -7.5

Myles Turner Under 1.5 Blocks (Bet365)

By Joe Dellera

Let’s run it back for much of the same reasoning as the last game: Myles Turner simply hasn't had a ton of block opportunities against the Celtics. The Celtics allow their opponents the fewest blocks per game, and they're blocked just 3.5 times per game.

The Celtics take a high volume of 3s, they don’t force bad looks and they don't try and take flashy shots that can get blocked.

Turner recorded two blocks in Game 1, but he needed overtime to get there. Honestly, he needed what should've been scored as a steal to be counted as a block.

Over his last 11 games against the Celtics, he's averaging just 0.6 blocks per game and has only recorded 2+ due to the generous scorekeeper in Game 1.

I’m grabbing Turner to go under 1.5 blocks with room up to -150.

Pick: Myles Turner Under 1.5 Blocks

Andrew Nembhard Over 6.5 Assists (Bet365)

By Joe Dellera

The Pacers head into Game 4 down 3-0, despite having a few winnable games this series.

Now it’s a win or go home Game 4.

I’m looking at Andrew Nembhard to help lead the Pacers, who likely will be without Haliburton.

In Game 3, Nembhard racked up nine assists on 16 potentials. This has been a trend for Nembhard without Haliburton, though. In his last 10 games without Haliburton, he's averaged seven assists on 11.4 potentials, but in most of those games, he had played fewer than 30 minutes.

In Game 3, with much of the season on the line, he played nearly 40 minutes.

This Pacers offense is full of firepower, and Nembhard should be looked at to facilitate for his teammates.

I’ll grab him to exceed 6.5 tonight.

Pick: Andrew Nembhard Over 6.5 Assists

Pacers +4.5 1H (DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

The Pacers have only trailed at halftime once in this series, and that was by six points.

We've had questions this season about the Celtics being frontrunners, and they haven't been able to totally disprove us to our satisfaction due to their cupcake competition in the Eastern Conference.

They've had multiple late rallies this season against the Pacers, who keep falling all over themselves to close out games.

With Indy, we can attribute that to a number of things. In Game 3, it showed their collective playoff inexperience again, failed to get stops when it mattered most and were missing its closing creator in Haliburton.

But I like the Pacers in the first half because, in this series, they've arguably been the better first half team.

Plus, in a Game 4, you'd think Indy would give its best shot. It got off to great starts in Game 1 and Game 3, so it's repeatable in a desperate situation.

Pick: Pacers +4.5 1H