NBA best bets: Cavaliers vs. Nuggets odds, pick, prediction for Sunday 3/31

Cavaliers vs. Nuggets Odds

Sunday, Mar 31, 3:30 p.m. ET, NBA TV

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Cleveland welcomed back Donovan Mitchell with a win over the Philadelphia 76ers on Friday, but it was a tough game for Mitchell. He struggled to find his shot, going 4-of-13 from the field and 1-of-7 from 3, but he facilitated well, dishing out eight assists.

Now the Cavs start a tough West Coast road trip where they’ll face the Nuggets, Jazz, Suns, Lakers and Clippers, and I imagine they’d be happy ending up 3-2 by the end of the week. Cleveland is in the thick of the playoff hunt, and while next week’s matchups won’t affect its head-to-head seeding implications, stacking a few wins will be key. They’re currently two wins behind the Bucks in the loss column and tied with the Knicks, but New York owns the head-to-head tiebreaker.

I expect the Cavs to come out hungry in this game, even if it means resting some players later in the week.

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets came out of the All-Star break surging, going 15-2 before hitting a two-game skid recently. They lost 104-97 to the Suns in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score would suggest before losing to the Timberwolves on Friday.

Denver seems to be running on empty. When Nuggets forward Michael Porter Jr. was asked what the team's biggest priority was, he said staying healthy was the most important thing right now. Despite the questionable tag for Murray, I think he sits Sunday while they focus on staying in postseason shape.

Without Murray, the Nuggets have fared OK, going 11-9; but they’ve underperformed relative to the market at just 7-13 against the spread (ATS). We’ve seen the Nuggets weather the initial storm when Murray sits, but when he’s out for an extended period, we see the cracks show. Murray has missed 20 games on six separate occasions, and the Nuggets have done well in their first games without him, going 5-1 straight up and 4-2 ATS. If we remove those first games without him, the nuggets are just 3-11 ATS in games without Murray.

Cavaliers vs. Nuggets

Betting Pick & Prediction

Based on how tired the Nuggets have looked and the struggles of their second unit, I like the Cavs in this spot. I expect Murray to sit, in which case we could see Denver prioritize rest and health over a win. I see value on the Cavs moneyline as well.

If you like the Nuggets, I see more value in the first half than the full game, when they could run out of gas. The Nuggets are 14-8-1 in the first half when they lost the last head-to-head matchup, as they did in Cleveland on Nov. 19.

I also think this is a classic Nikola Jokić game against a Cavs team that gives up a lot of rebounds and assists despite the size of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. I think there’s value on Jokić's rebounds + assists line at 21.5, a line he’s hit in four of six games against Allen on the Cavs. A bet on Jokić's triple double prop is also a good look.

Picks: Cavaliers +6.5 | Cavaliers Moneyline +170 | Nikola Jokić Over 21.5 Rebounds + Assists | Jokić to Record a Triple-Double