NBA best bets: Expert picks for Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Game 3 for Sun. 5/26

Timberwolves vs. Mavericks

Sunday, May 26, 8 p.m. ET, TNT
Luka Doncic Over 29.5 Points (-118, FanDuel)

By Joe Dellera

Luka Doncic has been tremendous this postseason, but especially this series, with 33 and 32 points in Games 1 and 2, respectively, on the road. He has seemingly left his injury behind him and looks as healthy as ever.

Doncic has thrived against the Timberwolves this season, with 30+ points in every game and averaging 34.5 points over four games. He’s stepped up his game against one of the league’s best defenses.The Wolves simply have had no answer for him and he has been able to eviscerate the defense regardless of the defensive coverage.

Doncic's rotations have been a bit different this series, with him playing roughly 40 minutes per game for an even split in both halves. However, it has been critical that he can be used as a closer for Dallas when Minnesota is most tired.

I’ll grab Doncic to exceed 29.5 points in a critical Game 3.

Pick: Luka Doncic Over 29.5 Points (-118)

Wolves 1H ML (+110, BetMGM)

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

The Wolves were leading for most of the first half in Game 2 but let Luka Doncic and the Mavericks get the better of them in the second half. The Wolves have been a solid first half team with a +1.7 first half Net Rating this postseason.

Despite the Mavericks' success these playoffs, most of it has come in the third or fourth quarters. They have just a -5 Net Rating, which is the worst of any remaining playoff team and better than only the Heat, Pelicans and Knicks.

The Wolves also fit a trend that’s brought back a 45% ROI this season in a 12-game sample size. Teams that were favored in the previous game by -4.5 or more but lost outright are 9-3 ATS in the first half of the following game. Since the 2016 playoffs, those teams are 67-42-3 ATS for a 17.2% ROI.

Since the 1H line is at +1 for the Wolves, I’ll just take the moneyline at +110 for better value. If I’m wrong and the Wolves don’t cover the first two frames, I might look to live bet them at half in a desperation spot. Follow in the Action App to see how I play this game live (@nbaWatts).

Pick: Wolves 1H ML (+110)

Karl-Anthony Towns Over 19.5 Points (-110, DraftKings)

By Joe Dellera

Karl-Anthony Towns missed this line in both Games 1 and 2 despite seeing tremendous volume. Additionally, Naz Reid had one of the best shooting performances of his life, and as a result, Towns barely saw the floor in the fourth quarter of Game 2.

Towns has been better on the road than at home, so the trip to Dallas might help him out. In the playoffs, he has 20+ in 5-of-6 road games and averages 23.2 points in those contests. On the season as a whole, he has 20+ points in 72% of road games compared to just 38% of home games. Towns is a road warrior.

I’m encouraged by the volume he had despite the lack of conversions in Games 1 and 2. A change of scenery should help him build off his 29.4% Usage to start the series.

I’ll grab KAT to exceed 19.5 Points.

Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 19.5 Points (-110)