NBA best bets: Mavericks vs. Heat prediction, odds, pick for Wednesday 4/10  

Mavericks vs. Heat Odds

Wednesday April 10, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks offense should have success here given how frequently the Heat allow 3-pointers. The Mavs rank second in offensive 3-point Attempt Rate (41.1%) and 10^th in 3-point Accuracy (38%) on the season. Meanwhile, the Heat defense is 28^th in 3-point Attempt Rate Allowed. The Mavs jacked up 44% of their shots from 3 and converted on 40% of those looks in a six-point win over the Heat in the first matchup between these two.

Expect their offense to succeed once again here as Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving should be fairly rested after a blowout win over the Hornets on Tuesday night. Those two played 37 and 35 minutes, respectively, but relative to the Heat starters, who all played north of 40 minutes, the Mavs should have a bit more energy here.

Miami Heat

The Heat will have a quick turnaround here after earning an eight-point win in double overtime against the Hawks last night. The Heat looked pretty fatigued at the end of the game, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them start this game off a step slow.

This will be a tough matchup for their defense as they take on a Mavericks offense that is scorching hot as of late, scoring 130 or more points in each of their last two games. However, the Heat offense should be efficient here against a weak Mavs defense.

The last time they matched up with the Mavs was back on March 7th, and the Heat offense shot extremely well from 3 (46%) but still struggled with efficiency as their Offensive Rating was just 114.9 (48th percentile). They struggled mightily from the midrange by shooting just 9/25 (36%), and they were also completely incapable of generating any second-chance opportunities, rebounding just 16% of their misses.

The Heat will have to find ways to be more efficient on offense if they want to defeat this scorching hot Mavericks team.

Mavericks vs. Heat

Betting Pick & Prediction

I think this is Mavericks -3.5 or pass as it is hard to expect all of the Heat players to be fresh here after their double-overtime game last night. A number of their players were already questionable heading into Tuesday's game before playing over 40 minutes, so I wouldn’t be shocked if the Heat opted to sit some of their guys on the second night of back-to-back games.

The Mavericks should cover this short number against a fatigued veteran Heat squad. Also, I wouldn’t hate the under here as there is a chance that the Mavericks opt to rest some of their stars as well now that they have pretty much locked up the 5-seed. In the scenario that Doncic sits, this total will plummet, so I don’t think it is the worst idea to grab some under 219 here as well.

Pick: Mavericks -3.5 | Under 219