NBA best bets: Picks targeting the total, player props, prediction, odds for 4/1

Suns vs. Pelicans, part 1

Monday, April 1, 8 p.m. ET, NBA TV
Pelicans +1 (DraftKings)

By Chris Baker

The Pelicans have struggled over their last few games but that’s what happens when you play the Celtics, Thunder, and Bucks in all in the same week. I think we are getting a discounted Pelicans price here because when you look at season-long data there is absolutely no way you arrive at the Suns being favorites on the road here.

The Pelicans rank 4th in net-rating (+5.2) and the Suns are 11th (+2.2) using dunksandthrees.com’s season-long schedule adjusted data. The situation is also not ideal for the Suns as this is their 5th road game in a row while the Pelicans have not traveled for an entire week.

This is the Pelicans 4th game at home in a row and I expect them to have just as much urgency as this fringe playoff Suns team as the Mavericks have now surpassed the Pelicans for the 5th seed and the division lead. Back the Pelicans as home underdogs here as this line is clearly inflated towards the Suns.

Pick: Pelicans +1

Suns vs. Pelicans, part 2

Kevin Durant over 28.5 PA (FanDuel)

By Joe Dellera

The Suns face off against the Pelicans in what should be an exciting game between to playoff hopefuls.

I’m targeting Kevin Durant in this spot.

The Pelicans have one of the longest teams in the NBA with some of the strongest perimeter defenders; however, Durant is so efficient and effective this remains a good spot for him where there may be minutes he is covered either by Larry Nance or Zion Williamson.

When these teams played on January 19th, the Suns emerged victorious after a 52 point eruption from Devin Booker. Despite Booker scoring 52 points, KD also had 26 points and 2 assists. He was incredibly efficient in his attempts and only made it to the line once. Additionally, he had just 2 assists but that was on 8 potentials. When he has played alongside of Booker and Beal he is averaging 4.7 assists on 8 potentials – he had some poor conversion luck.

When KD has played with Beal and Booker, he has exceeded this 28.5 PA line in 55% of games while averaging 29.8 PA. While this is generally a tougher matchup against the Pelicans it still is a spot he can find success if it gets dragged into more of a half court style contest.

I’ll back KD to exceed 28.5 PA.

Pick: Kevin Durant over 28.5 PA

Suns vs. Pelicans, part 3

Under 224.5 (BetMGM)

By Matt Moore

The Suns have been an under team since the officiating changes, and while that's cooled off, they've still trended under. But this is mostly based on the matchup. The Pelicans are a top-10 defense built on the strength of its wings and versatility. The Suns are a jump-shooting team facing the No.2 team in defending jump shots this season in New Orleans. The Suns defensively can lose the rope, but they have a number of advantages here, particularly at the rim with Nurkic and Kevin Durant protecting the rim.

With so much at stake as both teams try and stay or get out of the play-in tournament, this is one where every possession matters. Phoenix is bottom-10 in offensive possession length, per Dunks & Threes, and has the 8th-best transition defense to force the Pels to run halfcourt. I'm expecting a slugfest.

Pick: Under 224.5

Hawks vs. Bulls, part 1

Monday, April 1, 8 p.m. ET, League Pass
Ayo Dosunmu over 20.5 pts + reb + ast (-125, (DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

I like this to -140, then I'm out.

Ayo Dosunmu has been one of my favorite players to take overs on this season. He's one of my most bet players of the 2023-24 campaign, and will be until he's eliminated from contention.

He has three straight PRA 20.5 overs and went over 11 of 16 times in the month of March. That's after going over 6 of 10 times in February.

He just gets it done, and in his role, he's been the biggest beneficiary outside of Coby White in the post-Zach LaVine era, from a production standpoint.

Also, they get the Hawks at home, who are one of the league's worst defenses.

Pick: Ayo Dosunmu over 20.5 pts + reb + ast (-125)

Hawks vs. Bulls, part 2

Clint Capela Double Double (-115, FanDuel)

By Joe Dellera

The Hawks take on the Bulls tonight and I'm interested in the battle on the interior.

Clint Capela has performed well against both Nikola Vucevic and Andre Drummond in his career. He's a very solid rebounder and his size should be needed in this matchup.

Capela has recorded 6 consecutive double doubles against Vucevic so even though his minutes have been a bit lower recently, the history in these head to head matchups remains solid. In those 6 games he is averaging 14.7 points and 13.8 rebounds so he is clearing the Double Double threshold by margin.

I expect Capela to play enough minutes tonight with Jalen Johnson's (ankle) status for tonight being questionable  and Onyeka  Okongwu (toe) listed as Out.

I expectt Capela to record a double-double tonight.

Pick: Clint Capela Double-Double (-115)